Pierre Poilievre has owned Carleton riding for several elections; Mark Carney is vying for the seat in Nepean. They’re neighbouring national capital ridings. Let the drama begin.
We are off to the races in one of the most consequential election in our history, and Ottawa will be the centre of the political universe as the two main candidates for prime minister, Liberal Mark Carney and Conservative Pierre Poilievre, run in the same city.
Perhaps never since Confederation has an election been more important, with the very existence of our country at stake, thanks to U.S. President Donald Trump’s annexation threats. And never before have the two main party candidates for the top prize ran in ridings next door to each other. But Carney has chosen to stake his political life in Nepean, next door to Carleton, where Poilievre is something of an institution — a seven-time MP, now running for the eighth time. Lucky Ottawa is the obvious winner, and will get a prime minister, no matter what.
“Ottawa is where Mark Carney raised his family, devoted his carrier to public service and always gave back to his community,” the Liberal party announced in a social media post. Carney, who lives in Rockcliffe Park, could have run in the Northwest Territories where he was born, or Edmonton, where he grew up. But the ex-banker has taken a big gamble in Nepean, and the question is whether it is a winning move.
The suburban Ottawa riding has been held from 2015 until now by Liberal Chandra Arya, who was initially nominated to run again, until the party revoked his nomination, paving the way for Carney’s bid. The writing had been on the wall since Arya was bounced from the party leadership race. The reasons for the party’s decisions have not been fully explained, but if the party didn’t want Arya to run for leader, it is not surprising that he was rejected as a riding candidate.
Nepean was once solidly Conservative, as part of the old Nepean-Carleton riding that Poilievre represented for years. It was hived off into a separate riding in the 2012 boundary changes, and in the 2015 election Arya took 52 per cent of the vote. Interestingly, Poilievre could have run in the newly created suburban riding, but chose the more rural Carleton. Arya was re-elected in 2019 with a 45.9 per cent vote, and retained the seat in 2021 with 45 per cent.
So, is it a safe seat for Carney? On paper, it looks very much so. The riding has changed significantly in the past decade: not only have the federal Liberals won three in a row, roughly the same area went Liberal in the last month’s provincial election when Tyler Watt won it in a shocker. It had been represented at the provincial level by Lisa MacLeod from 2006 until her retirement last year, and no one imagined the Liberals would flip it. That victory was the more surprising because Conservative heavyweights such as MacLeod, former Tory foreign minister John Baird and former Ottawa police chief and senator Vernon White backed the Progressive Conservative candidate Alex Lewis, who led the polls weeks before the election.
Watt’s victory showed that at least the provincial Nepean riding had turned solidly red, and Carney should win its close federal equivalent. What remains unknown is how voters in the riding will react to seeing their three-term MP being turfed for Carney.
Arya has been quite controversial recently, travelling to India in the summer of 2024 and meeting with Prime Minister Narenda Modi. This was at a politically sensitive time, when India was being accused of foreign interference in our affairs, and worse, complicity in the assassination of Canadian Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar. It was no surprise that Global Affairs Canada disavowed the visit, making clear Arya had gone to India on his own initiative.
As for Poilievre, his team will be campaigning in a much-expanded riding due to boundary changes for this election. Carleton now practically horseshoes around several urban and suburban areas of Ottawa. That’s a lot of geography to cover.
This election has many story lines, and the stage is set for history, as two candidates vying for prime minister run in ridings cheek by jowl: Nepean and Carleton. Let the drama unfold.
Mohammed Adam is an Ottawa journalist and commentator. Reach him at [email protected]
