With just hours to go until U.S. President Donald Trump’s ‘Liberation Day,’ Canadian businesses and government officials still don’t know exactly what tariffs are coming — but no one’s expecting anything good.
Trump has vowed to impose “reciprocal tariffs” on a wide range of countries Wednesday.
It’s also the day across-the-board 25 per cent tariffs on all imports from Canada and Mexico are set to launch, further inflaming Trump’s trade war.
“We’re still waiting to see the details. Everybody is,” said Matthew Holmes, public policy head of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.
“Nerves have been wracked,” said Flavio Volpe, CEO of the Auto Parts Manufacturers’ Association, whose members already face a 25 per cent tariff at 12:01 a.m. Thursday, and could now face two more sets of levies.
“Any one of them would shut down the auto industry on both sides of the border — at least temporarily,” said an exasperated Volpe. “Then the other two are absolutely superfluous.”
By late Tuesday afternoon, Canadian government sources told the Star they are in the dark as to what level of tariff to expect.
Tuesday morning, the White House put out a media advisory for a ‘Make America Wealthy Again’ event at 4 p.m. Wednesday in the White House’s Rose Garden.
In a press briefing, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said “there are quite a few countries” like Canada who are talking to the president’s team to escape tariffs, “but there’s one country the president cares most about, and it’s the United States of America.”
During Trump’s first term, there was no warning when he slapped 25 and 10 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminum using a little-known provision in the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. The move sent Canadian officials, then leading the NAFTA renegotiation talks, scrambling to figure out what it even was.
Since Trump’s second term, a similar hustle to figure out what the president is referencing has occurred with each new tariff threat issued via his Truth Social post or off-the-cuff remark.
U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has provided some advance warning on a couple of occasions, but Canadian officials have largely had to read the tea leaves after each executive order is signed.
Late Monday, the office of the U.S. Trade Representative published a 400-page report looking at America’s global trade relationships, including tariff and nontariff barriers, with Canada not escaping unscathed.
The report cites Canada’s digital sales tax, supply management system for dairy, provincial liquor boards, such as the LCBO, and even ministerial exemptions required for the import of certain bulk container sizes of produce.
It also took aim at Quebec’s Bill 96 labelling laws, and the requirement of cable and satellite TV packages to require at least 50 per cent Canadian content.
Even Canada’s official ‘Zero Waste Agenda,’ which aims to eliminate single-use plastics, came in for criticism.
On the federal campaign trail, Liberal leader Mark Carney blasted the report.
“French language, culture, and supply management,” Carney said, “will never be on the table.”
Asked whether he had any insights about what to expect, Carney suggested he’s waiting and watching like everyone else.
“We’ll be looking with interest tomorrow.”
The prime minister’s office released a short statement with a readout of a call Carney had with the president of Mexico, Claudia Sheinbaum Tuesday afternoon.
It said the two leaders agreed to stay in touch, and that their senior teams of ministers and officials would “continue to work together to advance shared priorities.”
The phone call between Carney and the Mexican president was their first since the Liberal leader replaced Justin Trudeau as prime minister.
The call with Sheinbaum was not specifically to kick-start any new negotiations with Mexico, said a PMO spokesperson, nor to co-ordinate retaliatory responses, although the leaders did share information.
On March 7, Trump said he’d impose a 250 per cent tariff on Canadian dairy imports, and 250 per cent on lumber. Two days later, he said he’d hold off on those sectors until April 2.
Despite the wide and specific range of grievances in the USTR’s report, said Holmes, it’s unclear exactly what Trump has in mind — though the wide-ranging list of grievances make clear something ugly is coming.
“We should not kid ourselves that this is going away,” said Holmes, adding that Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ seems to fit with the president’s penchant for showmanship.
“It has a name, a backdrop, a bunch of pomp and circumstance,” said Holmes. “I guess we’ll see tomorrow what the emperor is actually wearing.”
Appearing on NBC Tuesday afternoon, Ontario premier Doug Ford mocked Trump’s moniker for Wednesday’s looming tariffs.
“I don’t call it Liberation Day for Americans, I call it Termination Day because there are going to be people who are laid off. Assembly lines will be shut down,” he predicted.
“We are going to retaliate appropriately, but hard as well,” Ford added, referring to the federal plan for counter-tariffs.
While U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has suggested in interviews that Trump could reduce the 25 per cent across-the-board tariff to 15 per cent, the president has often reportedly left even his own officials scrambling to keep up with his announcements.
Trump has repeatedly railed at trading partners “taking advantage” of the U.S., and has vowed to repatriate jobs, particularly in manufacturing.
And he has saved some of his harshest words for Canada, saying it’s “a very nasty negotiator.” He has also said that the U.S. “doesn’t need anything they have,” even though his country imports almost $600 billion a year from Canada.
On March 12, Trump imposed 25 per cent tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports.
On March 26, he signed an executive order imposing a 25 per cent tariff on all cars and light trucks imported to the U.S., beginning at 12:01 a.m. Thursday.
There’s a partial exemption for cars made with U.S. parts, but given how highly integrated the automotive supply chain is across the continent, it’s still not exactly clear how the exemption would work.
Automotive industry executives, analysts and union leaders have said the entire sector across North America could shut down within a week once tariffs are levied.
A report from Oxford Economics released Tuesday said that if a shutdown of the North American automotive industry lasts for a full quarter, it would cost the Canadian auto sector $4.4 billion in production and 20,000 jobs.
The economic ripple effects would shrink the size of the Canadian economy by $13 billion, and cost another 36,000 jobs.
With files from Rob Ferguson
