Canadian return trips from U.S. continue to fall amid Trump tariffs, border crackdown

In all, the new statistics mark the third consecutive month the agency has reported a drop in year-over-year data. In January this year, there was a 6.2 and 6.4 per cent drop in return trips by air and car respectively compared with January 2024. And, in February, there was a larger decline of 13.1 per cent and 23 per cent for each respective return trip compared with the previous year.

Statistics Canada did not provide reasons for the drop in return trips by Canadians, although recent headlines of Canadians and other foreigners being detained at the U.S. border has likely weighed heavily on people’s decision to hold off or cancel their travel plans to the States.

The Canadian government also recently updated its travel advisory to the States, warning travellers to expect “scrutiny at all points of entry, including of electronic devices.”

Thursday’s Statistics Canada report is also another indication that Trump’s ongoing trade war is turning Canadians away from visiting the States — which could be costly for the U.S. tourism industry that has long relied upon Canadians and their dollars. Canadians accounted for 11 per cent of total international inbound travel and spent $20.5 billion in 2024, according to the U.S. Travel Association.

“I think what we’re seeing right now is a real sense of patriotism,” said Beth Potter, president and CEO of the Tourism Industry Association of Canada (TIAC). ”(Canadians) are focused on supporting Canadian businesses, and that includes Canadian tourism.”

Potter added that the TIAC has observed a 19 per cent increase of Canadians intending to travel domestically since the start of the trade war — a fact she said could boost Canada’s $130 billion tourism industry.

“We do actually expect that our contributions to the economy will outpace the rate of the growth of the economy overall,” she said.

The decline in U.S.-bound travel from Canadians could become even more stark in the coming months, Robert Kavcic, a senior BMO economist, warned in an analysis published Tuesday.

While cross-border car travel has seen a dramatic drop since Trump first threatened across-the-board tariffs in early February, Kavcic said it is likely too early to see the full impact on U.S.-bound air travel as much of the trips in winter months were pre-booked.

“Some industry guidance is pointing toward a notable decline in U.S. air travel bookings for this summer,” Kavcic continued.

Major Canadian airlines have already indicated they are making changes to their operations in light of Canadian frustrations with the U.S.

Air Canada announced on a quarterly financial call in February it would cut flights to Florida, Las Vegas and Arizona by 10 per cent.

Meanwhile, Flair Airlines previously told the Star it had ended some flights to American airports early while boosting service to places like Mexico and Jamaica to match demand.

A Statistic Canada report on Thursday noted that there was half a percentage point increase in the number of Canadians flying home, largely driven by trips outside of the U.S.

The drop-off in visits and planned trips has tourism agencies across the U.S. worried. Representatives from a Palm Beach travel group were in Toronto last week on a trade mission, while members of the New York state tourism board were in Canada earlier in March for similar reasons.

Canadians feelings toward the U.S. when it comes to travel also appears to be mutual.

As part of its report Thursday, StatsCan found a 10.6 per cent decline in trips by car year-over-year in March, up from the nearly eight per cent drop in trips in February.

With files from Ana Pereira.