The spring real estate market was slower than expected in the GTA, with the chaos caused by the U.S. trade war spooking some buyers, prompting Royal LePage to lower its year-end forecast.
The real estate company updated its quarterly price and market forecast Tuesday. The report still predicts a slight rise in home prices by the end of the year, but not by as much as originally predicted.
“People were and maybe still are waiting to see what happens,” said Shawn Zigelstein, broker and leader of Team Zold, Royal LePage Your Community Realty.
“That frenzy that we see, that typically takes off as soon as the grass starts to show and the buds start to bloom, we haven’t seen it all.”
Zigelstein also blames other factors like the long cold winter, and the uncertainty around federal and provincial elections, for the sluggish spring.
But the tariffs and resulting stock market swings have caused potential buyers to question if their investments will be worth less and the cost of living will rise. Some are even concerned about losing their jobs.
“They’re not going to be jumping to go purchase a property right now because they’re worried about putting food on their table. So there’s a sense of unease,” he said, not just in the GTA, but across the country.
According to a recent survey by Royal LePage, conducted by PR firm Burson, among Torontonians looking to buy a home in the next year, 66 per cent say the trade dispute has caused them to postpone, while 34 per cent say it has not.
Only 48 per cent of Torontonians say they are confident in Canada’s economy, the survey said.
The aggregate price of a GTA home (which includes all home types) dropped 2.7 per cent year-over-year, to roughly $1.15 million in the first quarter of 2025, according to the report.
The price of a detached home in the region dropped less, by 0.5 per cent year-over-year, to $1.45 million, and the price of a condo dropped more, by four per cent, to $703,900.
Within the city of Toronto the aggregate home price dropped 3.1 per cent year-over-year to $1.12 million, the single family home by 0.8 per cent to $1.69 million and the condo by 3.9 per cent to $686,700.
According to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), GTA home sales were the lowest for March in 23 years.
It was also the worst February on record for new home sales, with nearly 17,000 new and pre-construction condo units sitting on the market, per a recent update conducted by Altus Group on behalf of the GTA-based Building Industry and Land Development Association.
The GTA condo market has been suffering with an oversupply of shoebox units aimed at investors who can no longer make money, and a wave of preconstruction buyers who have not been able to close due to drops in price and higher interest rates just as units have been completed.
Zigelstein said while the condo market has been slower than single detached homes, prices overall have been flat and he hasn’t seen “desperation” from sellers.
The new Royal LePage report forecasts that GTA home prices will be $1.19 million in the last quarter of the year, up 3.5 per cent compared to the same period in 2024.
That’s down from a five per cent increase predicted previously by Royal LePage, before U.S. President Donald Trump took office.
“Did we expect everything that has happened so far? Happened this year? No, probably not. That’s why they’re making the adjustment,” Zigelstein said.
He added that while buyers are being “cautious,” they still want to purchase homes, and confidence in the market could quickly bounce back, especially if the situation with the U.S. stabilizes.
“So those first-time homebuyers that want to get into the market, now is a great opportunity for them.”
