As political tensions continue to run high, predictions that Canadian travellers would shun Central Florida are becoming a reality, with hotel bookings down and airlines scaling back flights in response to lower demand.
Sandra Pappas, who owns a Disney-focused travel agency in Canada, said she started noticing the downturn in February. That’s when President Donald Trump unleashed threats to impose sweeping tariffs and make the nation the 51st state.
“Unfortunately, there has been a huge drop-off, more for future travel,” said Pappas, who runs Click the Mouse. “It’s quieter than we’ve ever seen, except for COVID.”
She estimated requests for travel quotes to Orlando’s theme parks are down more than 50 per cent. To adapt, her business is pivoting to other Disney-themed vacations, such as Disneyland Paris and Disney cruises departing from Vancouver.
The impact could be considerable. About 3.3 million Canadians visited Florida in 2024, making them the top source of international tourists and about 2% of total travelers, according to state tourism numbers.
But this year, advance hotel reservations from Canadians in the Central Florida region dropped nine per cent in April compared with the previous year and 35.1 per cent for May, according to data from Visit Orlando, the region’s tourism marketing agency.
Visit Orlando CEO Casandra Matej attributed waning Canadian travel demand to the country’s weaker dollar and slowing economy, along with Trump’s tariff announcements.
Orlando’s overall visitation numbers so far remain strong, but the travel outlook has grown murky with volatility in the stock market and uncertainty over Trump’s trade agenda. Still, Orange County’s hotel tax collections hit a record high in February, and Visit Orlando’s advance hotel booking data is up for April and May when considering all tourists. Universal Studios’ planned May opening of Epic Universe, the first new theme park in the Orlando area in a quarter-century, is bolstering those numbers.
“While we are seeing a slowdown from Canada, we are still seeing continued interest and bookings from other markets,” Matej said. “As one market slows, others present opportunities.”
Canadian travel statistics also show a decline in visits from that country to the United States. In March, Canadians flying home from U.S. trips were down 13.5 per cent from the same month last year. Return trips by automobile were down even more by nearly 32 per cent.
Gov. Ron DeSantis has insisted Canadians will continue to visit. Earlier this month, he dismissed reports that a Trump backlash would keep them away, noting he met numerous Canadians during a family outing to Legoland.
“I’m like, ‘I thought you guys weren’t coming to Florida anymore.’ ‘Oh no, we love Florida.’ So, we’re going to continue to be a destination,” he recalled.
But Ravi Jain, a Toronto-based immigration lawyer, said that’s not what he is hearing. Avoiding U.S. travel has become an act of national pride for Canadians, he said.
“They are expressing their dissatisfaction with some of the president’s comments with their feet and their travel dollars … They certainly don’t want to post on social media to their friends, ‘Hey, I went on a vacation to Florida,’” he said.
Canadian immigration lawyers say fear is driving some of the drop-off, following high-profile reports of Canadian and European visitors being detained or deported as part of the Trump administration’s crackdown on illegal immigration.
Actions by officials in the two countries are also discouraging Canadian tourists from looking south.
The Canadian government updated its travel advisory for the United States, warning Canadians to “expect scrutiny at ports of entry, including of electronic devices.” Border agents have the power to search phones and laptops, but officials maintain such actions are extraordinarily rare with less than 0.01% of arriving international visitors being subject to such scrutiny.
Searches are conducted to detect digital contraband, terrorism-related content and information relevant to visitor admissibility, “all of which play a critical role in national security,” Customs and Border Protection Assistant Commissioner Hilton Beckham said in a statement.
“Allegations that political beliefs trigger inspections or removals are baseless and irresponsible,” Beckham said.
A new rule requiring Canadian visitors staying longer than 30 days to register with the U.S. government could also affect snowbirds who spend their winters in Florida, said Heather Segal, founder of Toronto’s Segal Immigration Law.
Absent unusual circumstances, travelers are automatically registered when they fly into the United States. But some travelers crossing the land border from Canada may not be issued the required I-94 form and may need to register on their own, and if they fail to do so, they could face serious penalties, including a $5,000 fine or up to six months in prison, Segal said.
“The message being sent to Canadians is, ‘We’re not interested in you. We’re not best friends anymore,’ ” she said of Trump’s rhetoric and confusion over new border rules.
Airlines are responding. Air Canada is planning to reduce the frequency of flights between Orlando and Toronto. WestJet, another Canadian carrier, suspended a route between Edmonton and Orlando.
“WestJet has observed a shift in bookings between Canada and the U.S. to routes between Canada and other sun destinations such as Mexico and the Caribbean, and Europe,” said Josh Yeats, an airline spokesman.
But Canadian airlines aren’t giving up on the Orlando market. Porter Airlines’ capacity to Orlando is unchanged year-over-year, and early bookings for summer travel are up, said spokeswoman Robyn van Teunenbroek. Flair Airlines plans to resume winter seasonal routes in October between Orlando and Toronto and nearby Kitchener-Waterloo.
Sean Snaith, an economist at the University of Central Florida, said he’s monitoring the effect tariffs and federal layoffs have on the broader U.S. economy. A recession would have far bigger ramifications for tourism than a Canadian travel boycott, he said.
Snaith said he’s optimistic Canadians will return once political rhetoric diminishes and emotions fade.
“It is still cold in Canada,” he said. “How much are you going to punish yourself because you are mad about something a politician did?”
Pappas said she’s making the case to prospective clients that Walt Disney World is the perfect place to get away from politics and the news.
“Once you get into those park gates, you forget everything,” she said. “I feel people should still go. Walt’s vision was escape the world and go to Disney World.”
