Long considered a safe Conservative seat, Pierre Poilievre’s long-held riding of Carleton has turned into a horse race in the final days of the federal election campaign.
A source with the federal Liberal campaign who is not authorized to speak on the record, confirmed that the party’s internal projections and polling numbers show the gap between Poilievre and Liberal challenger Bruce Fanjoy has shrunk dramatically in recent days
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from 10 points to five points.
With a margin of error, he said, a five-point gap “is bringing us really close” and creates a situation where things like getting out the vote become absolutely essential.
He said it appears the Conservative party has been moving resources from other ridings, including those in Ottawa, where they are not expected to win, to shore up the vote for Poilievre in Carleton.
“My understanding is they are basically panicking and putting all of their resources into Carleton because they are afraid to lose it,” the source said.
Conservative sources have told both the Toronto Star and the Globe and Mail that they are pouring resources into Carleton because Poilievre is at risk of losing the riding he has held since 2004.
The gap between Poilievre and Fanjoy has begun to close over the past two weeks.
The Liberals are also sending some extra resources to Carleton, given how tight the race has become, the source said.
“We do think we can turn the riding red. I think at the beginning it was wishful thinking, but right now it is not wishful thinking, we are seeing the gap close.”
Conservative party spokesperson Sam Lilly said the party is confident Poilievre will win his seat.
“No riding is ever taken for granted, but we are confident Pierre Poilievre will be returned to Parliament to represent Carleton,” Lilly said.
Poilievre first won the riding
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an earlier version of the current riding
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when he was 25 years old and a rookie politician. This is his eighth time running in the riding and his first campaign as Conservative leader.
The campaign has faced turbulence, both at the national and local levels.
Poilievre and the Conservative party were in majority government territory in the polls leading up to an election. But the resignation of former Liberal prime minister Justin Trudeau
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a focus of Poilievre’s pre-election campaign
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and the election of Donald Trump as U.S. president began to change things.
Trump’s threats of tariffs and annexation of Canada, and the election of former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney as head of the Liberal party and prime minister upended the election.
The Liberals now have a comfortable lead according to the majority of polls, and some have warned for weeks that Poilievre’s riding should not be considered safe.
Poilievre, whose only public event in the riding was when he launched his campaign on March 23, is also facing a strong challenge from the Liberals.
Fanjoy, a former businessman known for helping to design and build a sustainable home on the Rideau River, began knocking on doors in the riding back in 2023, long before campaigns were organized, declaring he planned to defeat Polievre.
His campaign has gained support both inside and outside the riding.
Meanwhile, Carleton, which spreads from Arnprior to near Cumberland at the southern edge of Ottawa, is the target of a protest campaign whose organizers say is meant to raise awareness about the need for electoral reform.
The group, which calls itself the Longest Ballot Committee, has flooded Carleton with candidates, resulting in 91 names on the ballot. Elections Canada has already warned it will take longer than usual for election workers to count all of the ballots
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which are close to a metre long
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in the riding on election night.
It is likely to be one of the more closely watched races in the country on what could be a long night.
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