The fate of the Bloc Québécois on Election Day could have major repercussions on who forms government in Canada, and in what capacity.
How the Bloc fares in Montreal-area ridings like La Prairie—Atateken, Repentigy, Terrebonne, and Longueuil—Saint-Hubert will go a long way to determining what the next few years look like for the party – and for Canada.
A strong showing by Yves-François Blanchet’s Bloc, for instance, could be the difference between a majority or minority government for the winning party.
But a possible major defeat – winning two dozen seats and being wiped out from Montreal, potentially – would not be a harbinger of fading sovereignty in Quebec, according to Blanchet.
How did we get here?
Ironically for a party whose raison d’être is defending the interests of the only province in which it exists, the Bloc’s fortunes became intricately linked to the ebbs and flows of national and international politics.
When support for then-prime minister Justin Trudeau was at an all-time low in December, some polls projected the Bloc could win enough seats to form the official Opposition in the House of Commons. It’s something that’s only happened once in the country’s history, when Lucien Bouchard won 54 seats in 1993 – two years before the province’s famous second referendum.
It was hardly a stretch, then, for political observers to interpret the Bloc’s resurgence in 2024 as momentum for the Quebec sovereignty movement. That was especially true given the Parti Québécois’ own comeback at the provincial level; the sovereigntist party led by Paul St-Pierre Plamondon still holds a commanding lead in opinion polls.
But prospects of a “light blue wave” at the federal level didn’t stay afloat for along.
The Bloc’s poll numbers plummeted following Trudeau’s resignation and the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump, whose tariff and annexation threats sent Canada into a spiral and prompted Canadians to rally around the flag in the face of economic devastation.
Quebec’s political landscape was not immune.
In the days preceding Canada’s general election, Quebec voters were projected to elect 22 Bloc MPs, well below the 33 seats the party held at dissolution.
A February survey from Léger found the desire for a sovereign Quebec had dropped to 29 per cent in the province, among the lowest support ever measured by the polling firm. Léger indeed attributed it to “increased patriotism” in the country.
Earlier this month, a different Léger survey found nearly half of Quebecers believe an independent Quebec would have much less influence than a united Canada in dealing with the Trump administration.
Blanchet has predicted the appetite for Quebec independence will “come roaring back” when the political and trade environment with the U.S. becomes stable again. Until then, what it’s meant for the Bloc Québécois is a sharp drop in popular vote and seat projections in favour of Mark Carney’s Liberals.
In the campaign’s final week, Blanchet made a last-gasp pitch to Bloc supporters to return to the party. By conceding Carney would likely become Canada’s next prime minister, the Bloc leader asked Quebecers to ditch strategic voting and instead vote the party he says best represents Quebec’s interests.
All in all it was a far cry from the resounding celebrations, seven months earlier, when the Bloc triumphed over the Liberals and NDP in the Montreal Liberal stronghold riding of LaSalle—Émard—Verdun – a major blow to the governing Liberals that precipitated calls for Trudeau to resign as prime minister and party leader.
–With files from The Canadian Press
