Alberta is widely expected to remain a conservative stronghold on election day, but the Liberals could make gains in a province where they’ve historically seen scant support.
Albertans, by and large, vote Conservative federally, and polls heading into election night suggest that will remain the case.
Nevertheless, the Liberals, under Leader Mark Carney, hope rising support, broadly combined with a corresponding drop in NDP favourability, could translate into vote splitting and some red seats in the province’s two major cities.
Most pollsters project the Liberals could at the very least make it close in nearly a dozen of the province’s 37 ridings. Liberal candidates are currently polling ahead in four ridings in Calgary and two in Edmonton — six would mark the most seats the party has won in the province in more than 75 years.
The Liberal Party last won five seats in Alberta in 1949 and the most they’ve ever held was seven in 1940, when the province only had 17 total seats up for grabs.
Calgary has never been represented by more than two Liberal MPs and incumbent George Chahal, running this time around in the newly created Calgary McKnight riding, could be the first ever Liberal re-elected in the city.
A full list of results for Alberta ridings can be found here. Here are some ridings to keep an eye on Monday night:
Calgary Centre
The Conservatives flipped Calgary Centre with a 20,000-vote victory in 2019, and it has remained blue, but the Liberals have regained some ground in the region, and it could be at risk of another flip.
Incumbent Greg McLean is running for the CPC, facing off against local businesswoman Lindsay Luhnau for the Liberals.
Calgary Confederation
The Conservatives have held the Calgary Confederation riding since it was created in 2015, but Len Webber, who was the MP for the riding, will not be running in the 2025 election. Jeremy Nixon is in the running to continue Webber’s legacy, while the Liberals named Corey Hogan, VP of the University of Calgary, as their candidate.
Early polls indicated the riding is a toss-up between the Conservatives and Liberals.
Calgary Skyview
This Liberal-held riding will have a new MP after this election due to the current MP, George Chahal, running in the newly created Calgary McKnight riding. Hafeez Malik will hope to continue the Liberal run here, but will be facing off against Amanpreet Gill.
Polling indicates the Liberals have a slight lead over the CPC.
Edmonton Centre
The Liberals are trying to hold on to one of their few seats in Alberta with a new candidate this time after Randy Boissonnault elected not to run again. Boissonnault’s time in office has been tumultuous over the last year. He resigned from cabinet last November amid controversy over his business dealings and skepticism about his claims of Indigenous identity.
Army veteran Elenor Olszewski is running for the Liberals, economist Sayid Ahmed will be on the ballot for the Conservatives, and the NDP are running former broadcaster and schoolboard trustee Trisha Estabrooks.
Edmonton Griesbach
The NDP’s Blake Desjarlais won this traditionally Conservative north Edmonton riding in the last election, narrowly beating out CPC incumbent Kerry Diotte. Initial polling is showing another tight race between the CPC and NDP, with both candidates running again.
Edmonton Gateway
Edmonton Gateway is another riding created by the redrawn boundaries. The Liberals have had a revolving door of candidates in this race, with former Alberta NDP Rod Loyola being kicked out and replaced with lawyer Jeremy Hoefsloot. Loyola is now running as an independent.
They both will be facing off against longtime CPC politician Tim Uppal. He was the MP for Edmonton Mill Woods, which was partly absorbed into Edmonton Gateway.
Edmonton Southeast
Edmonton Mayor Amarjeet Sohi is hoping to make the jump to federal politics, taking a leave of absence to run for the Liberals in the newly created riding of Edmonton Southeast. He’ll be going up against Conservative candidate Jagsharan Singh Mahal, a lawyer and community leader and the NDP’s Harpreet Grewal, a nurse and community leader.
With files from Meredith Bond and The Canadian Press
