The date has finally been set: 53,000 postal workers will vote on Canada Post’s “final” contract offer starting Monday, following an order from the federal government. But labour experts say it’s unlikely the vote will solve the increasingly bitter, long-running dispute, and suggest workers will almost certainly turn the offer down.
On Wednesday, the Canada Industrial Relations Board informed the Crown corporation and the Canadian Union of Postal Workers that online and phone balloting will take place between July 21 and Aug. 1.
A spokesperson for Canada Post said a new contract is even more urgently needed because the uncertainty caused by the labour unrest — including a month-long strike last year — is scaring off customers.
“In June, Canada Post saw losses from operations increase to approximately $10 million a day — more than double the daily average losses in June 2024. These record losses are clearly unsustainable, especially if the uncertainty continues,” the spokesperson said in a written statement.
The Crown corporation has recorded more than $3.8 billion in losses before tax since 2018. In 2024, it had an operating loss of nearly $1.3 billion.
“Canada Post is proposing critical changes to its delivery model. These changes will help the company grow its parcel business so it can meet the evolving needs of Canadian businesses and Canadians, help protect jobs and preserve a vital national service,” the spokesperson said.
In a memo posted on its website Wednesday evening, CUPW slammed both the offer and that the vote was ordered by the government.
“This isn’t bargaining — it’s a take-it-or-leave-it ultimatum, and an attack on our rights,” read the memo, from CUPW national grievance officer Carl Girouard. “A strong NO vote doesn’t just reject these unacceptable offers, it defends our future and the integrity of the bargaining process itself.”
It’s been more than a month since federal Jobs Minister Patty Hajdu ordered the CIRB to organize the vote. That time, said U of T labour studies professor Rafael Gomez, has given the union plenty of time to convince its members to vote down the offer.
“I think the employer had the early advantage with the narrative, but this delay has really given the union some momentum when it comes to communicating,” said Gomez, director of U of T’s Centre for Industrial Relations and Human Resources. “These votes usually don’t favour the employer, anyway. I think it will be a very clear ‘no.’ ”
In an interview before the voting dates were known, Brock University labour studies professor Larry Savage agreed that the outcome is almost certainly going to be a resounding no.
“These forced votes tend to backfire on employers,” said Savage. “Because at the end of the day, the workers understand that their union does a better job of looking out for their interests than their employer does — especially an employer who’s already committed to a major restructuring.”
In a post on X June 12, Hajdu said the public interest would be served by a vote, noting that the dispute had already spanned more than 18 months, 200 meetings and last year’s strike. The order came roughly a month after a key report from veteran mediator William Kaplan, who said the Crown corporation was effectively insolvent.
Over the last two weeks, the union has been posting frequent updates on its strike website, attacking the offer and criticizing Canada Post.
One bulletin posted Monday was titled “Understanding the offers: Why you shouldn’t trust Canada Post.”
The post, which reiterated the union’s opposition to the deal, suggested members take a closer look.
“Taking a deeper dive into CPC’s offers and comparing its summaries to its proposed collective agreement language, you’ll find that not everything is quite how Management has made it out to be,” the bulletin said.
On May 28, Canada Post made what it called its “final” contract offer, which includes a 13 per cent wage hike spread over four years, as well as a $1,000 signing bonus. Two days later, it asked Hajdu to order a vote on the offer.
CUPW members have been in a legal strike position since May 23, but their strike action has thus far been limited to a ban on overtime work.
In a statement posted Tuesday, the union said it would continue the same OT ban if its members vote the offer down.
That, suggested Gomez, could make it tempting for Canada Post to lock workers out if they reject the offer, given the dwindling customers and continuing losses.
“The incentive for a lockout is there for the employer,” said Gomez.
The Tuesday bulletin, from CUPW national president Jan Simpson, urged members to give a “strong” no vote, calling it necessary.
“There is every reason to assume that a strong “NO” vote will convince CPC to amend its offer and negotiate an agreement with CUPW,” Simpson said.
The union has repeatedly criticized the Crown corporation, saying it was trying to avoid a negotiated settlement by asking Hajdu to order a vote, and by insisting any arbitration be based Kaplan’s report, which was done as part of an Industrial Inquiry Commission ordered in December by then-labour minister Steven MacKinnon, who said Canada Post was effectively insolvent.
Kaplan also said there’s an impasse in bargaining, suggested arbitration wouldn’t be a good choice to deal with Canada Post’s need for restructuring, and said a final offer would be the third option for an end to the dispute.
Kaplan’s May 15 report suggested the use of community mailboxes, the elimination of home delivery except for parcels, and getting rid of some post office locations and replacing them with franchises.
Kaplan also suggested expanding parcel delivery to seven days a week, with the use of part-time and temporary employees.
