The tone was more cautious than doom-and-gloom this week as executives at Canada’s big six banks released third-quarter results and discussed how geopolitical unrest and trade turmoil is likely to continue clouding the picture in the months ahead.
“Global trade tensions may result in slower growth and higher inflation in many countries, including Canada and the United States,” soon-to-retire CIBC chief executive Victor Dodig told analysts on a conference call Thursday.
“However, we anticipate that declining interest rates will help support economic growth, while fiscal policy will offer targeted relief to the sectors most affected by trade negotiations.”
CIBC, whose profits for the quarter topped $2 billion and beat market expectations, is well positioned to weather the volatility, Dodig added.
“Regardless of what the macroeconomic environment serves up, we’re going to continue to execute against our strategy. We’re going to continue to support our clients. We’re going to continue to control what we control and position CIBC for continued strength.”
There appeared to be a common sentiment among top bank bosses that while there’s reason for cautious optimism around the economy, prudence is warranted while the fate of the Canada-U.S.-Mexico trade agreement remains unsettled.
“Early this year, my uncertainty meter was very high and today it’s less high,” BMO Financial Group chief executive Darryl White told a conference call Tuesday as his bank reported a 25 per cent jump in quarterly net income to $2.33 billion.
“It doesn’t mean there’s no uncertainty.”
TD Bank Group CEO Raymond Chun said Thursday that global trade dynamics “continue to be fluid” with a CUSMA review set for next year.
“While Canadian companies have benefited from that trade agreement, tariffs and especially sector-specific tariffs create business uncertainty and economic distortions with significant impacts to the most exposed sectors,” he said.
The Canadian and U.S. economies have shown resilience despite the uncertainty, but momentum has eased.
“These remain early days,” Chun said. “It will likely be a long road before the full impact of tariffs is well understood.”
TD reversed a year-ago loss to book a quarterly profit of $3.3 billion.
The Bank of Nova Scotia saw a drop in provisions for credit losses — money set aside for loans that might not be repaid — to $1.04 billion from $1.05 billion, but chief risk officer Phil Thomas told analysts Tuesday that it’s not clear how sustainable that trend is.
“There’s obviously a lot going on in the Canadian economy, particularly. We still have trade uncertainty that’s hitting us. The Canadian consumer is still showing some signs of stress,” he said.
Scotiabank reported a 32 per cent jump in quarterly profits to $2.53 billion.
Royal Bank of Canada said its provisions for credit losses rose from a year ago to $881 million, and its chief risk officer said that measure is expected to stay elevated as trade tensions persist.
“In the ongoing uncertainty this quarter, we have maintained our prudent posture and retained the elevated weightings to our downside scenarios in line with last quarter,” Graeme Hepworth told analysts Wednesday.
Canada’s biggest bank posted a 20 per cent jump in quarterly earnings to $5.4 billion.
The CEO of Montreal-based National Bank said he was encouraged by how the federal and provincial governments are looking to make lasting changes to boost productivity and economic resilience.
“Investments in energy, security, and nation-building infrastructure will stimulate growth and put us on the right path,” said Laurent Ferreira.
National Bank’s quarterly profits edged up to $1.07 billion from $1.03 billion a year earlier.
Each of the banks’ adjusted earnings per share beat the average analyst estimate compiled by LSEG Data & Analytics, except for a one-cent miss from National Bank.
Earlier Thursday, CIBC reported a third-quarter profit of $2.10 billion, up from $1.80 billion in the same quarter last year.
That amounted to $2.15 per share for the quarter ending July 31, up from $1.82 per share last year.
Revenue totalled $7.25 billion, up from $6.60 billion.
The bank’s provisions for credit losses totalled $559 million, up from $483 million last year.
On an adjusted basis, CIBC earned $2.16 per share in the quarter, up from $1.93 per share last year.
Analysts on average had expected earnings of $2.00 per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.
The bank’s personal and business banking segment reported a net income of $812 million in the third quarter, up $119 million or 17 per cent from a year earlier. Canadian commercial banking and wealth management reported a net income of $598 million, up $97 million or 19 per cent from last year.
Capital markets profit was $540 million, up $251 million or 87 per cent from last year.
Meanwhile, its U.S. commercial banking and wealth management division posted a net income of $254 million, up $38 million or 17 per cent from a year ago.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Aug. 28, 2025.
Companies in this story: (TSX:CM) (TSX:RY) (TSX:CM) (TSX:NA) (TSX:BMO) (TSX:TD)
