Hopes are high but expectations low as Mark Carney sits down with Donald Trump

Hours before Carney left Monday for a two-day visit to D.C. to meet with Trump at the U.S. president’s request, government officials wouldn’t say specifically what his demands would be. 

But officials have indicated the focus will be on an economic and security deal, with those ongoing talks centred on Trump’s tariffs, the latest of which were revealed Monday, with the president vowing to target truck imports by next month. 

In the House of Commons, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre blasted Carney’s government for “caving” to Trump and failing to secure a comprehensive deal.

Carney’s right-hand man in negotiations with the U.S., intergovernmental affairs minister Dominic LeBlanc, shot back with a now-familiar line. 

“Canada is currently in the best position of any major trading … ally of the United States,” LeBlanc said in question period, adding that turning down Trump’s invitation would have been a mistake. 

“Is (Poilievre) suggesting … if the President of the United States invites you to go to Washington for a meeting and a working lunch, we should have just said no and hung the phone up?” LeBlanc fired back.

In Quebec City for a meeting of Canadian premiers and U.S. governors, Premier Doug Ford was skeptical about the chance of a breakthrough.

“I’ll be very blunt. You never know what comes out of a meeting with President Trump. He’ll say one thing one day and change his mind the next day. Again, we need certainty. We need certainty for our economies,” said Ford. “I don’t want the prime minister in there getting bullied and (Trump) telling him, ‘you’re doing this, you’re doing that.’ It’s not going to work.”

The Carney government has said the visit, which takes place as both countries hold consultations for next year’s review of the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA), will focus on reaching an economic and security deal. LeBlanc said last week that negotiations revolve around Trump’s 50 per cent tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum and 25 per cent tariffs on autos.

On the eve of Tuesday’s meeting, Trump also vowed to slap a 25 per cent tariff on all medium- and heavy-duty truck imports starting Nov. 1.

“The U.S. clearly signalled that this was coming, so it was expected, it was anticipated,” said Brian Kingston, president of the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association. “But that doesn’t change the fact that it’s unfortunate and damaging.”

Trump’s tariffs will cost the North American auto industry $188 billion over the next three years, Kingston estimated.

“Let’s be very clear: you can’t have a continental supply chain if one partner keeps threatening the other,” Flavio Volpe, the head of the Automotive Parts Manufacturers’ Association, told a parliamentary committee Monday.

Carney has sought to appease Trump by abandoning the Digital Services Tax and removing retaliatory tariffs on CUSMA-compliant U.S. goods. But the U.S. has still ramped up the attacks — including Monday’s levy on trucks and last month’s tariffs on softwood.

The trip to D.C. is vital, even if there are risks, said Diamond Isinger, a former special adviser to former prime minister Justin Trudeau.

“I think it’s a high risk, high reward visit,” said Isinger. “I think the two leaders need some face time together.”

The head of the United Steelworkers’ Canadian division is hopeful the meeting is more than just a photo op.

“I don’t know how if you can come home and say … what (Carney) always says — ‘We’ve got the best trading relationship in the world because of CUSMA, and 85 per cent of our stuff doesn’t get tariffed,’’’ said Marty Warren, USW’s national director for Canada. “Yeah, but some pretty big sectors sure do with the 232 tariffs, auto, steel, aluminum, softwood.”

While Trump’s Section 232 tariffs are a threat to other sectors, Canada’s softwood lumber industry is especially vulnerable, Warren said.

“They were dealing with such small margins to begin with,” said Warren, who also represents 14,000 workers in the lumber industry. 

The head of Canada’s largest private sector union, which represents workers in several hard-hit sectors including auto manufacturing and lumber, isn’t holding her breath for significant progress.

“My hopes are not high,” said Lana Payne, national president of Unifor. “I don’t know how people view progress, but if one day you have a meeting and not too many days later we get another Section 232 tariff on a sector of the Canadian economy, that isn’t progress, that’s Trump continuing to hammer us.”

Payne, too, pointed to the ramped-up tariffs on the softwood lumber sector as more evidence that Trump won’t give an inch without significant pressure, both from Canada and domestically.

“Let’s keep having conversations with the Americans. But the reality is that at some point, if we just keep getting hammered and are not getting anything in return, then we’re going to have a hard look at what our strategy must be going forward,” said Payne.

The head of the association representing the Canadian aluminum industry isn’t expecting anything earth-shattering Tuesday either.

“I don’t have any huge expectations for my sector. I don’t think a one-day meeting between the two leaders can end up in a deal,” said Jean Simard, president and CEO of the Aluminum Association of Canada. “I think the best we could hope for is a signalling by President Trump to his entourage that they should focus on Canada and sort things out.”

With files from Robert Benzie