The hockey team that came closest to knocking out the champs and was within one win of a ticket to the final four is now staring blankly at a trip to the lottery.
The first-quarter descent of the Toronto Maple Leafs — who awake after 20 games to see only the sad-sack Buffalo Sabres below them in conference standings — has been as precipitous as it is befuddling.
They’ve been ripped publicly by their starting goalie and riddled with injuries.
They’ve laid eggs when everyone expects a pushback and lost confidence despite dressing one of the most experienced cores in the game.
General manager Brad Treliving is making trade calls and launching Hail Marys on the waiver wire. Craig Berube is trying every trick and tinker in the head coach’s playbook.
We took a poll.
Roughly 44 per cent of Leafs viewers are ready to tap out on 2025-26.
A not-so-overwhelming majority, however, believes that a significant trade, the jolt of a coaching change, or patience and faith in this good-on-paper collection of talent will extend their league-best post-season streak to 10 years.
“We still have more than half a season to go,” says go-to spokesman and Maple Leafs truther John Tavares. “So, just stay together, stay composed, and know we have to play better.
“We just gotta continue to stay with it.”
Most encouraging development: Tavares refuses to age
How’s this for a wild quarter-mark stat?
The only Canadian with more even-strength points than 35-year-old Tavares (21) is Hart Trophy frontrunner Nathan MacKinnon (24).
Tavares sniped his 500th career goal and just kept flooring the gas.
Even with Auston Matthews injured and the power play turning colder than an ex, Tavares has remained the picture of consistency.
On a team that hasn’t shown much of it through mid-November.
“He brings so much experience,” defenceman Simon Benoit says. “He’s been around the league for so long, and he’s such a good guy off the ice too. He’s always ready to help out, give some advice. Having him around has been a blessing.”
Whether it’s effort, production, faceoff prowess, leadership in the face of a stripped captaincy, or value against the cap, Tavares is soaring all expectations.
“He’s always got the right voice,” Bobby McMann says. “He’s always got a good voice, good things to say, has a good beat on the room. He’s been around a long time, so he knows that there’s ebbs and flows in seasons. He knows that it’s not the end all, be all, and we need to continue to work on our game.”
Most concerning development: Defence in disarray
The decline of the Maple Leafs’ defensive game is as surprising as it is disturbing.
To think: Treliving brought back the top eight defencemen on his depth chart. His D corps is big, long, and experienced.
And getting buckled to the tune of nearly four goals a night.
It’s a head-scratcher.
Injuries haven’t helped matters, nor has the subtraction of one-time Selke finalist Mitch Marner.
If the Leafs aren’t digging an early hole with shaky defensive starts, they are watching leads disintegrate at the feet of mental errors. Their confidence in one-goal affairs — a previous strength — is now a crippling weakness.
Berube keeps harping on structure and patience, safe decisions and smart pinches.
Either the coach’s message is falling on deaf ears, or the personnel is simply not up to the task.
Why Treliving has all faith in Berube to lead Maple Leafs out of this
Maple Leafs GM Brad Treliving discusses having all the faith in world in head coach Craig Berube to help lead this team back, says Craig didn’t forget how to coach over night, and it’s all about digging in now.
Top-six forwards: Grade A-minus
For all the Maple Leafs’ flaws and fret over replacing Marner’s 102 points, elite firepower is not the issue here.
Half their top six — William Nylander, Matthew Knies, and Tavares — are on pace for the most productive seasons of their careers, and that’s despite major power-play frustrations.
Prior to injury, Matthews was tracking a 43-goal campaign, which isn’t 69 but isn’t 33 either.
And Nick Robertson has risen to his top-six challenge and been nearly a point-per-game positive since earning the (tentative) promotion.
Do the Leafs need another top-six winger and Matthews’ latest ailment to be a blip, not a winter-long storyline? Absolutely.
But Toronto still threatens with a top-five NHL offence. They still employ game-breakers, as their third-best 12.6 shooting percentage attests.
And, as Nylander says, scoring goals is harder than preventing them.
Bottom-six forwards: D-minus
The opening pitch was that this edition of the Leafs would be deeper, more balanced. They would overwhelm, in the mold of the ’19 Blues, with waves of forechecking that grind you into the boards and win the net-fronts with big bodies.
Twenty games in, we’ve yet to see it for any sustained stretch.
The bottom of the lineup is patchwork and disjointed and forever in-flux.
Whether it’s David Kämpf not making the cut or bum-luck Scott Laughton getting injured twice, whether it’s Calle Järnkrok getting healthy-scratched after starting hot or Matias Maccelli failing to earn trust or power-play time or Easton Cowan yo-yoing around lines and leagues, the curiosities and inconsistencies down the bench are troubling.
Centre Nicolas Roy was brought in to play a matchup role and chip in a few; he’s a minus-4 with one goal and now injured. Dakota Joshua’s bounce-back has stalled at two goals; he’s a dash-6.
Max Domi is a team-worst minus-10. He’s on the books at $3.75 million for next season and the one after that, too. With trade protection.
As great a job Treliving did with the Tavares and Knies contract extensions, none of his bets on support forwards have paid off yet.
Maple Leafs’ Treliving outlines ‘lots’ of areas team needs to improve
Maple Leafs GM Brad Treliving outlines the many ways his club needs to improve, starting with them playing a more connected game, on both sides of the puck, wanting a more consistent effort, and the enthusiasm of the group has to change.
Defence: D
Funny. We cannot, in good conscience, give the blue line a passing grade when Toronto is giving up more goals per game (3.7) than any squad in the Eastern Conference.
Rush chances are a serious problem. Same with D-zone coverage and zone exits and net-front protection.
And yet, Morgan Rielly and Oliver Ekman-Larsson have both rediscovered some offensive juice that was missing last season, and sturdy Jake McCabe remains a solid plus-6 facing the tough assignments. Same goes for Chris Tanev, who unfortunately has suffered two injuries above the shoulders and who knows when he’ll play another game. Or if he should.
The top four is already overtaxed, the lefty-right equilibrium is out of whack, and the coach has lost faith in the depth. Hence, the waiver pickup of Troy Stecher. He brings some jam.
Goaltending: C-minus
Talk about a roller coaster.
While the Anthony Stolarz –Joseph Woll tandem operated nicely in the pocket last season and stood tall in the face of Grade-As, the Maple Leafs’ goaltenders have been scrambling since camp.
James Reimer and Cayden Primeau have come and gone. Prospect Dennis Hildeby got called up, played admirably, but never won.
Stolarz started strong but got overworked and hurt. Woll’s first appearance waited until Game 19, and he has played well enough that the Leafs’ 25th place in save percentage feels like the category for easiest improvement.
Quarter Mark Awards
MVP: John Tavares
Most Improved Player: Nick Robertson
Best Defensive Player: Oliver Ekman-Larsson
