Despite Canada Post and its union of postal workers striking a tentative deal late last week, experts say it’s still unclear how soon the contract will be put up for a ratification vote — and whether it will be approved by the Crown corporation’s 55,000 workers.
While the two parties said they have agreed “in principle,” the contract’s working language, which will be presented to members for a vote, is still being finalized.
But the Canadian Union of Postal Workers (CUPW) says all rotating strikes have been suspended and mail will be moving normally while details of the contract are hammered out.
The two parties reached an agreement on Friday evening after just over two weeks of renewed bargaining, guided by a federally-appointed mediator. Canada Post said last week it had more than $1 billion in operating losses in 2025 and that this year will likely see a record amount of red ink.
The news of the deal was timed to reassure both union members and customers ahead of the holiday season’s peak parcel rush, said Rafael Gomez, the director of the Centre for Industrial Relations and Human Resources at the University of Toronto.
“That public announcement says we’re kind of getting close to the final wording, and (the union) needs to signal that to their members so they’re not nervous before Christmas,” said Gomez. “Canada Post probably wanted this out as well, so that people aren’t diverting their package requests to other parties, fearing the strike.”
However, a strike won’t be fully ruled out until the language of the tentative deal is finalized and the ratification vote is done, the union signalled last week.
“Should the tentative agreements not be reached because the parties disagree on how the agreement in principle is reflected in language provisions, the suspension will be lifted for both parties, and the union may continue strike activity,” CUPW said in a press release on Friday.
The union said in a statement to the Star on Tuesday that the latest round of bargaining has been “difficult” and that it is working to reach a tentative collective agreement that postal workers can confidently ratify.
“Our priority remains what it was when bargaining started two years ago: strong public services, good jobs, and a sustainable public post office that serves all communities.”
York University labour studies professor Steven Tufts said it’s unclear how long it will take for the two parties to lock in the contract language. The union has more leverage now than it would after Christmas, since parcel volumes will be high over the next couple of weeks, he added.
“It shouldn’t be that long, but if they do get hung up on something, then the contract deal won’t be recommended for ratification,” Tufts said.
Gomez said the contract language will decide how much input workers have in Canada Post’s restructuring, and the union may seek things like retirement-bridging measures that let those nearing retirement access benefits early.
“The more difficult to write in these clauses, the more productive they will be in the future,” said Gomez.
If the tentative deal is finalized, this will be the second contract that Canada Post workers have voted on in the past year.
In July, Federal jobs minister Patty Hajdu ordered a vote on Canada Post‘s “final” contract offer to 55,000 employees. After a 12-day balloting period, 68 per cent of urban members and 69.4 per cent of suburban and rural members turned down the offer.
Tufts said it’s hard to predict how members will vote until the agreement’s details are made public. He said he will be watching to see if postal workers lose any cost-of-living protections or gain extra benefits for displaced workers in the event of layoffs.
“It’s a very complex union. There are some locals that are a little bit more militant than others in the union historically,” he added.
Gomez is more optimistic that postal workers will approve the agreement, noting that over 30 per cent of members accepted a Canada Post offer in May, even though the union urged a ‘no’ vote.
“I think if the union says to its members, ‘this is a deal we can live with,’ the member vote would likely be in favour as well,” Gomez said.
