VANCOUVER—At a critical time of upheaval in global politics, Prime Minister Mark Carney is trying to court the attention of one great power and avoid the ire of another, all while holding his political ground at home.
Carney was to leave Canada Tuesday afternoon. En route to Beijing, the prime minister detoured to do the thing he’s accused of not doing enough: listen to the political leaders who could make or break a key part of his ambitious trade agenda.
On Tuesday, he met B.C. coastal chiefs worried about ramping up oil exports to Asia via their territory.
Next it will be Chinese Communist Party leaders whose centrally-run economy would happily buy more of that oil along with more Canadian canola and seafood in return for tariff-free access to the Canadian market for cheap Chinese-made electric vehicles and parts.
China has made that clear to Ottawa: drop your U.S.-aligned tariffs, and we’ll do more trade.
This trip, Carney officials say, is all about doubling non-U.S exports for Canada, and luring global investment dollars.
It’s also about how Carney triangulates the competing demands — a test of his acumen not just as an economic steward but as a politician.
“Having better economic relations with China is clearly a good goal, but Canada should proceed with extreme caution,” said Brian Clow, a former senior adviser to Justin Trudeau.
“As tough as things are right now with the Trump administration, our number one economic market and security partner remains the United States. We shouldn’t be so keen on China that our relationship with the U.S. becomes even worse than it is now. A successful CUSMA review is far more important than any deal we could do with China,” said Clow.
“Whether we like it or not, the U.S. has stated clearly that if Canada and Mexico want to keep CUSMA, they’ll need to further pivot away from China and align more economically with the U.S.”
Indeed, on Tuesday, while touring a Ford plant in Michigan, Trump was non-committal when asked about CUSMA. “We can have it or not,” he said, before noting “Canada would love it.”
Even before Carney was set to land Wednesday evening, Beijing time, with several cabinet ministers and a handful of MPs in tow, he was facing conflicting demands reflecting regional tensions.
Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe, who will join Carney in Beijing, and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith want Carney to get China’s canola tariffs lifted, and to fast-track approval for a new pipeline and secure new markets for Canadian oil and liquefied natural gas — over B.C. Premier David Eby’s objections.
Eby sides with B.C. coastal First Nations in fierce opposition to a pipeline that would cross pristine forests and feed oil tankers along a rocky coastline.
Natural gas, yes. Heavy bitumen oil, no.
The regional tensions don’t stop in the west.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford is urging Carney not to “back down” and to retain the 100-per-cent tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles.
Ford encouraged Korean carmakers Hyundai and Kia to locate car production to the province. He has heard the concerns of Canadian auto producers who argue heavily subsidized Chinese carmakers would soon swamp the market with cheap EVs.
And when it comes to finding new markets for Canadian oil, the former Stephen Harper-led Conservative government walled off Canada’s oilsands from new Chinese investment.
Will Carney walk that back?
The Carney government hasn’t said it will reverse the policy, and the prime minister has put “guardrails” around critical minerals, defence and artificial intelligence.
However, said a senior government official at a pre-trip background briefing, “There are sectors like energy, both clean energy, conventional energy, climate, finance, where we can have a much more robust relationship that we think would drive real benefit for Canadians, jobs and growth.”
He declined to speak about “particular hypothetical investments” at this point.
While the main focus of Carney’s trip is economic, the Liberal leader has also faced calls to bring a sharper focus on human rights violations.
The Canadian Coalition on Human Rights in China, an umbrella for 10 Canadian organizations that includes the Raoul Wallenberg Centre for Human Rights, published an open letter Monday sent to Carney.
It urged him to “assert Canada’s firm opposition to the arbitrary detention” of pro-democracy media tycoon Jimmy Lai, to the detention of Uyghur Canadian Huseyin Celil whose fate behind Chinese bars has been unknown for eight years, and to a host of other human rights cases.
“Pragmatic foreign policy is being put into action in this China trip,” said Vina Nadjibulla, vice-president of research and strategy at the Asia-Pacific Foundation of Canada.
Nadjibulla, the ex-spouse of a former detained Canadian, said there may be deals struck on clean energy and climate action. China is a leading producer of solar panels and related technology. But she does not expect human rights to be discussed publicly.
At the same time, she said both substance and optics matter on this trip, making Carney’s task “very tricky.”
“Let’s not allow a Beijing to use this as a diplomatic win for them in their overall narrative and to kind of exploit the wedge that exists now between Canada and the U.S. because Canada is still very much a liberal democracy. We’re still committed to a rules-based order.”
With a file from The Canadian Press
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