Many Canadians support an early federal election if it leads to political stability, poll suggests

Despite a snap election less than a year ago that led Mark Carney’s Liberals to a minority victory, new polling from Abacus Data shows that 41 per cent of Canadians would support a general contest being called early if doing so would result in “a majority government that could provide more political stability in Canada.”

Twenty-seven per cent of Canadians strongly supported that idea, compared to 12 per cent who opposed the notion and four per cent who strongly objected to plunging the country into a premature contest to achieve that outcome.

When respondents were asked whether they would back an early election call if “Parliament was unable to pass any legislation and needed a reset,” 16 per cent of Canadians strongly supported the idea, with 42 per cent supporting it more generally. Nineteen per cent of Canadians opposed a snap call, while six per cent strongly opposed it, under those conditions. 

The numbers, shared exclusively with the Star, come from the latest survey from Abacus Data, which was conducted with 1,850 Canadian adults from Jan. 9 to 14. Because respondents were surveyed online, the poll cannot be considered truly random. A comparable random sample of the same size would have a margin of error of plus or minus 2.27 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

“The world is so uncertain, whether it’s (U.S. President Donald) Trump, whether it’s geopolitics, whether it’s a bunch of other factors,” said Abacus Data CEO David Coletto. “Add on a minority Parliament in which we’re arguing and debating whether one or two MPs are going to cross the floor, and I think people want actually less politics in this kind of environment.”

Carney won last spring’s campaign three seats shy of a majority, a margin that shrunk further after two Conservative MPs joined the government benches in recent months. An expected byelection in former Liberal Chrystia Freeland’s Toronto riding is likely to bump the Liberals to 171 seats, leaving Carney a single seat short of a majority, a parliamentary scenario that tends to result in more stability because the governing party doesn’t need to rely on opposition dance partners to survive confidence votes and pass laws.

“I think there is a demand generally for more certainty, more stability. And I think this data demonstrates that if the current government wanted an election, they might be able to justify one given the environment that they’re operating in,” Coletto added.

The January survey also found that half of Canadians would be open to an early election call if it specifically produced a Carney majority that led to more political stability, with 50 per cent of respondents strongly supporting or supporting the idea.

That level of support is lower than the other two scenarios Abacus tested, Coletto said, largely owing to Conservative voters’ opposition to handing Carney even more power than he currently wields.