A glimpse at the seating charts for the upcoming Canadian screenings of “Melania” — the behind-the-scenes documentary about U.S. first lady Melania Trump — suggests the Amazon-backed project would completely bomb at the box office, at least for a film with a reported budget of $75 million (U.S.), which would be the highest ever for a documentary.
As of Monday morning, Cineplex had sold just 58 tickets for the 51 scheduled screenings through Thursday at four GTA-area theatres. At Friday’s opening-night screening at the Scotiabank Theatre in Toronto, the Star previously reported that there were 15 people in attendance. (That number included several journalists and critics who were not invited to advance screenings.)
A similar story has also played out in major cities across the U.S. over the weekend, with local media and users on social media reporting that the documentary played to near-empty theatres.
But then, on Monday, the film’s box office numbers trickled in from its opening weekend: “Melania” had the best opening weekend for a non-concert documentary in 14 years — buoyed, in large part, by audiences in red states like Texas and Florida. It was the third best-performing film over the weekend, behind Sam Raimi’s survival thriller “Send Help,” which netted $20 million, and the sci-fi horror flick “Iron Lung,” which brought in $17.9 million.
“Melania” still far from breaking even
“Melania” grossed more than $7 million in its opening weekend across the U.S. and Canada, outperforming early estimates that predicted the documentary would net between $3 million to $5 million, according to Box Office Mojo, which aggregates box office revenue.
The film, though, is far from breaking even. Given the extraordinary amount of money that Amazon MGM Studios invested in the title — the company paid $40 million for the rights and spent an additional $35 million on marketing — that feat will be virtually impossible.
Still, the surprising figures from the opening weekend, particularly the results from certain regions of the U.S., point not only to the fractured cultural landscape across the U.S. and Canada, but also to the influence the Trumps have — both politically and culturally — over their base.
American audiences are mostly white older women
According to Deadline, “Melania” outperformed expectations in Dallas, Tampa, Orlando and Fort Myers. Three quarters of its audience were white, while more than seven in 10 were women, and an equal share were 55 or older.
These audience demographics largely align with Trump’s base of support. “The polarization in the U.S. would mean, I think, that red state viewers who are more supportive of Trump would probably want to show their support by going to this film,” said Charlie Keil, principal of the University of Toronto’s Innis College, and a professor at the Cinema Studies Institute and History Department. “But I also think the curiosity factor is very high, given all the promotion.”
The “Melania” documentary’s box office performance comes despite it being torn apart by critics. In his review for the Toronto Star, Vinay Menon described the documentary as “a fairy tale untethered from reality and sprayed with visual perfume.” Meanwhile, the New York Times called the project “a glossy, curiously impersonal, outwardly apolitical portrait of Melania Trump.”
“Melania” performing “on par” with comparable docs in Canada
It’s difficult to pinpoint exactly how “Melania” performed financially on this side of the border because Canadian cinemas do not independently report box office revenue, and aggregate sites like Box Office Mojo do not distinguish between Canadian and American figures.
Cineplex, which is showing “Melania” at 15 locations across the country, said the documentary’s performance is “on par with what we typically see for comparable documentary releases.”
Landmark, which is showing “Melania” at 16 locations, did not respond to questions from the Star about how well the documentary is performing at its theatres.
But anecdotal reports that “Melania” is playing to small Canadian audiences isn’t shocking, said Canadian film and television producer Marina Cordoni. “Canada-U. S. relations are in a sensitive moment, and many Canadians are being deliberate about what they support culturally,” she said. “The political associations surrounding the project likely cooled interest.”
When the documentary is eventually released on Amazon Prime, Canadian viewership will likely pick up, said Cordoni: “I suspect the film will ultimately find more viewers there — not as an endorsement, but as a case of people wanting to see what the conversation is about.”
Canadian cinemas stuck between “a rock and a hard place,” expert says
Yet despite heightened geopolitical tensions between Canada and the U.S., it’s not too surprising that “Melania” is playing in Canada, said Keil.
“Theatres operate as neutral parties within a free marketplace. So they’re not necessarily interested in being gatekeepers — unless the film is wildly controversial,” he said. “The last thing they need is Trump catching on to the fact that no Canadian theatres are showing ‘Melania,’ because then he would likely be demonizing our country all over again for yet another reason. So I think they’re kind of between a rock and a hard place.”
With files by the Associated Press, Vinay Menon and Leanne Delap
