Doug Ford expected to wait until summer for Scarborough Southwest byelection

The premier, making a point of touting all his Progressive Conservatives are doing for Scarborough transit at Friday’s opening of the Eglinton Crosstown LRT, has previously vowed to “work as hard as we can and hopefully we can turn that seat.”

“First time ever, Scarborough is actually going to be getting a subway. We’re going to extend it,” Ford at Eglinton station.

“I know Michael Thompson is as happy as anything because we’re going to bring subways all through Scarborough,” he said, giving a shout out to the Scarborough Centre city councillor.

While Ford’s political base is the other side of the city in Etobicoke, he has always had an affinity for Scarborough and PC sources, speaking confidentially in order to discuss internal deliberations, say he is personally reaching out to prospective candidates there.

The Tories last won Scarborough Southwest in 1999, but have finished second to Begum in the past three elections even though the riding was held by Liberal Lorenzo Berardinetti from 2003 until 2018.

In last year’s general election, their candidate, Addie Daramola, got 30.7 per cent of the vote even though the party devoted no resources to the riding. Begum won with 42.9 per cent while Liberal Qadira Jackson, who plans on seeking the byelection nomination, received 22.9 per cent.

MP Nate Erskine-Smith (Beaches—East York), the presumptive front-runner in the upcoming provincial Liberal leadership race, also wants the Scarborough Southwest nomination.

“If you think you deserve better then you should participate and you should step up,” Erskine-Smith, runner up to Bonnie Crombie in the 2023 Ontario Liberal leadership, said Friday on social media.

But Jackson told the Star on Thursday it would be “divisive” if any leadership candidates ran in Scarborough Southwest, undermining the Liberal prospects.

Liberal MPP Rob Cerjanec (Ajax), pondering a leadership bid himself, said other candidates for the top job without seats in the legislature should not be barred from going after the Scarborough Southwest nomination

“That’s the way it should be and that’s the way the party should approach it,” Cerjanec said Friday.

“Any party member should be able to choose if they want to run in a nomination. It should be open, it should be fair, and the people in that community then can decide who they want to represent them as a Liberal candidate,” he added.

Other potential leadership hopefuls include MPPs Adil Shamji (Don Valley East), Lee Fairclough (Etobicoke Lakeshore) and Stephanie Bowman (Don Valley West), city councillor Josh Matlow (Toronto—St. Paul’s), and former federal party president Mike Crawley.

The New Leaf Liberals, a self-styled “grassroots” group co-founded by a one-time Erskine-Smith backer, said the party is “at its best when we minimize barriers to participation for byelection and leadership candidates.”

In an email Friday, the group chided the Liberals’ executive council for taking “way too long” to set timelines, entry fees and rules for the pending leadership race. Those details are being finalized at a meeting this weekend amid concerns the window for a spring contest has closed.

Tories confided that Ford is closely watching the internecine Liberal machinations, mindful that any divisions would be helpful to his party.

Similarly, the premier is keeping an eye on the New Democrats because the PCs traditionally benefit from progressive vote splits between the NDP and Liberals.

Putting up a united front for the media at Queen’s Park, NDP Leader Marit Stiles said Begum’s loss “hurts every one of us here” but insisted her team is “stronger than ever before.”

Asked about Ford’s timing for the byelection, Stiles stressed that didn’t matter since work has already begun.

“We are rolling up our sleeves. We are rolling out our byelection machine — and New Democrats know how to do byelections,” said Stiles, who was surrounded by most of her caucus, although several MPPs were missing.

“We have held that riding for eight years and before that we had a really strong history in Scarborough Southwest. We have a really strong team on the ground there. And to the people of Scarborough Southwest, look at these faces, because you are going to be seeing them on a doorstep near you, real soon.”

Stiles said she was with Begum on stage at a Sunday night event in Scarborough, but had no inkling her defection was imminent.

“No. Nothing. Nope,” she said, adding they last talked Tuesday morning when the deputy NDP leader called to resign.

“I have spoken to members of her riding and her community who are heartbroken and devastated. I’m not going to sugar-coat that, because there are lots of people, young women, who were mentored and are very hurt.”

Prime Minister Mark Carney is expected to call federal byelections in Scarborough Southwest and University-Rosedale well before the provincial vote.