Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says her government isn’t sure how much it might save if referendum questions proposing restrictions to social services for some newcomers are approved in the fall.
Smith announced in a TV address Thursday that her United Conservative Party government is putting nine questions to a provincewide referendum on Oct. 19.
They include proposals to restrict social services from some immigrants and charge a fee to non-permanent residents to access health and education. Another would require immigrants live in Alberta for one year before qualifying for certain social programs.
Smith said Friday the province has never seen its finances simultaneously squeezed by slagging oil prices and such population growth, so it needs to address “out-of-control” temporary residents.
“Every new arrival, particularly if they bring their family, draws on Alberta’s public services,” she said. “Not every newcomer is a net contributor to the provincial revenues that fund those services.”
Smith was unable to say if the policy changes would be enough to eliminate what’s expected to be a multi-billion-dollar deficit this year. And she didn’t provide a total estimate for health-care and education savings.
“We’d have to do the figuring out,” she said.
She added there are about 225,000 residents in Alberta who drive about $14 to $16 billion in spending.
“I don’t know what the breakdown is between those who are permanent residents, Canadian citizens or temporary workers, but we’ve got to find that out.”
The premier also didn’t offer an estimate of how many new Albertans might be affected if referendum questions are approved. But she said children of temporary residents accounted for $500 million annually in K-12 education costs in the past two years.
The pace of newcomers arriving in Alberta needs to match the supply of homes, schools and hospitals, Smith said, and the province has been seeing three times the number it can absorb in recent years.
She said she wants to see her government be able to choose economic migrants and that the referendum proposals are about making sure services are prioritized for citizens and permanent residents.
Gabriel Brunet, spokesman for Federal Intergovernmental Affairs Minister Dominic LeBlanc, said in a statement that Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals have already taken action on the issue.
He said recent policy changes have led to substantial declines in asylum claims, new temporary foreign workers and international student arrivals.
Ottawa’s goal is to protect the “bargain of a sustainable intake of newcomers that is consistent with our capacity to properly welcome them,” he said.
Alberta Opposition NDP deputy leader Rakhi Pancholi said the referendum questions are an attempt to distract Albertans from UCP government mismanagement on more pressing priorities such as affordability and health-care access.
Smith’s approach to immigration is already “emboldening some very dark and disturbing behaviour,” she said.
“I can tell you that the level of racism and hate that has been expressed has risen, undoubtedly in this province, and it is aligned with this government and this premier’s attempt to pin all of her failings on newcomers.”
Smith defended her plan, saying even immigrant communities have raised frustrations with the current system and that the NDP’s criticisms are offside with the views of most Albertans.
Daniel Bernhard, chief executive officer for the Institute for Canadian Citizenship, an immigrant support and research organization, said Alberta would be shooting itself in the foot if it moved forward with the proposed policies.
He said it would only make life harder for newcomers, some of whom work in the sectors Smith says are being overwhelmed by population growth, including nurses, support workers for the elderly and early childhood educators.
“Immigration is not a gift that we give to immigrants. It is service that we do to ourselves to ensure that we have the talent to deliver the public services that we need and to fuel business growth,” he said.
“If (Smith) thinks that your grandma doesn’t deserve care, then she should just say so directly.”
He said he expects other provinces will use the issue as an opportunity to attract immigrants away from Alberta.
Nketti Johnston-Taylor with the Calgary-based Centre for Newcomers said she and others in the sector think the referendum will spark more anti-immigrant sentiment and discrimination.
It has been a concern for years, she said, and the debate seems poised to make it worse.
Should the referendum pass and the government move forward, newcomers could face hardship and homelessness, especially in their first year, Johnston-Taylor said.
“If you add new premiums or fees, some families will delay medical care, avoid prescriptions or take on high interest debt,” she said. “That is where you can see the poverty pathway begins.”
Mount Royal University political scientist Lori Williams said Smith’s attempts to pin much of Alberta’s financial troubles on immigration don’t necessarily hold water.
Williams said when migration to the province peaked in 2023-2024, Smith’s government posted a multi-billion surplus at the end of the corresponding fiscal year.
“We know that the real problem is the drop in the price of oil,” said Williams.
“I doubt if you added up all of the costs of all of these concerns about immigration put together, (you would see) figures to show that there’s going to be some kind of net gain or a solution to the problem of the deficit.”
Data from Statistics Canada shows immigration and migration levels to Alberta have dropped considerably since 2023-2024, when the province gained 220,000 residents. Of that total, just over 100,000 were non-permanent residents, such as international students, temporary foreign workers and family members.
The following year, Alberta saw 120,000 net new residents through immigration and migration, with just under 22,000 being non-permanent residents.
In the first quarter of the current fiscal year, the province saw just under 12,000 new residents, despite a net loss off nearly 11,000 non-permanent residents.
Williams said it’s a time-honoured strategy for Alberta politicians to lay the blame for deficits on Ottawa, but that the referendum deflects attention from things Smith does have control over.
Asked if the referendum would be binding, Smith didn’t provide a yes or no answer and said: “I’m not asking these questions with the intention of ignoring what Albertans tell us.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Feb. 20, 2026.
— With files from David Baxter in Ottawa
