Clashing visions define pivotal NDP leadership race as party prepares to rebuild

It was a thinly veiled rebuttal to the rise of Avi Lewis, the party scion and left-wing maverick who appears to be in the driving seat of the race with a massive organizing machine and crowds of hundreds across the country listening to his pitch to return the New Democratic Party to its democratic socialist roots.

In a week, New Democrats will gather in Winnipeg for a party confab that will reveal their choice. The winner will then head to Ottawa, where the NDP holds just six seats in Parliament (one of which may be at risk), Prime Minister Mark Carney is enjoying a honeymoon with voters despite an apparent rightward shift, and the cash-strapped party is fighting to make its case to Canadians.

It hasn’t seemed to matter that Lewis has lost twice running for Parliament. Or that his most well-known political project was a manifesto that raised hell with Alberta’s only ever NDP government. In a race defined by frustration with the status quo, Lewis has emerged as the candidate to beat.

“There’s a fork-in-the-road moment for Canada right now … all the rules are undone, and what was normal, whether pre-pandemic or post-pandemic and pre-(Donald) Trump, like the free trade rules and international order, it’s all come unglued,” Lewis told the Star, arguing his support shows progressives want “ambitious” populist solutions over incremental change.

“Being able to offer an agenda that cannot be confused with the Liberals and cannot be co-opted by them, I think, is really important,” Lewis said.

His rivals have tried to contrast themselves to him. McPherson’s campaign, for one, has increasingly emphasized their “shared values” while framing her as the pragmatic option in a two-way race.

Labour leader Rob Ashton has tried to pitch himself as a unity candidate, shooting down McPherson’s offer of a strategic alignment while slamming Lewis as divisive. Meanwhile, social worker Tanille Johnston and Ontario farmer Tony McQuail have emphasized grassroots renewal, tapping into a frustrated party base.

For Luke Savage, a co-author of “Seeking Social Democracy: Seven Decades in the Fight for Equality,” there has rarely been more contrasting views over political direction, ideology and the party’s identity in an NDP leadership race.

“I can’t really recall a leadership race where this disagreement has been so kind of foregrounded,” said Savage, who has backed Lewis.

For now, the five candidates know a re-creation of Jack Layton’s 2011 Orange Wave is not yet within sight: During the February debate, all but McQuail bluntly said their first priority was to rebuild the party, not to be prime minister.

David Coletto, the CEO of Abacus Data, said the new leader will face massive twin challenges: Where do they find their next five to 10 winnable seats? How do they break through to Canadians with Donald Trump’s instability occupying most of the political oxygen?

“Its relevance in this moment has remained diminished I think, it’s lacking official party status (and) losing an MP is the wrong kind of message and signal being sent at the moment,” Coletto told the Star, referring to the massive blow to New Democrats earlier this month when Nunavut MP Lori Idlout defected to the Liberals.

“It doesn’t mean that there isn’t going to be a space for them. It’s about whether the leader can get the public’s attention and the media’s attention, frankly, to be heard.”

Not only will the next leader have to sell themselves to Canadians, but they’ll also have to hold their party’s coalition together — including a small caucus with a wide range of regional and ideological interests.

Only two NDP MPs have backed candidates, with Winnipeg’s Leah Gazan supporting Lewis over her caucus colleague McPherson, who she slammed early on for her public call for the NDP to drop “purity tests.” Vancouver Island’s Gord Johns, meanwhile, backed McPherson.

And with Alexandre Boulerice, the party’s only Quebec MP, considering a jump to provincial politics, the next leader may quickly face a critical byelection in Montreal.

Just the mere potential of that move has been a gut-punch to the New Democrats; Idlout brought it up in her explanation for why she defected to the Liberals instead of rebuilding the NDP. It has also stoked fears among Quebec New Democrats who fear the lack of fluency in French among leadership candidates could push them to oblivion in the province.

Still, Coletto said writing off the “potential demand for the kind of politics that Avi Lewis represents” would be a mistake, even if Canadians currently see Carney as a calming presence best suited to manage the trade relationship with the U.S.

Lewis has raised more than $1.2 million, the most of any NDP leadership contender ever, though his donations — as well as those of the other candidates — have come from disproportionately urban and highly-educated ridings, which could be tougher to turn into electoral success, according to data analysis by economist and longtime New Democrat Edgardo Sepulveda.

McPherson, in an interview with the Star, said she is best suited to help the NDP build on its strengths and get election ready, but she would be open to implementing policy ideas from the other leadership campaigns.

“We can promise everybody a puppy, but if we don’t win more seats, if we don’t welcome more people into our party, if we don’t make Canadians see themselves at the NDP table, it doesn’t matter,” she said.

Some of her top allies have been more pointed, attacking Lewis over his past activism, including the “Leap Manifesto,” an energy transition road map he pushed for a decade ago that was weaponized by Conservatives in the prairies.

Lewis, in response, has defended the ability to disagree among New Democrats, while emphasizing his outreach to provincial NDP leaders.

This week, a six-year-old video was shared on social media by McPherson allies showing Lewis and his wife — popular author Naomi Klein — appearing to joke about former Alberta NDP environment minister Shannon Phillips not being in government anymore.

Lewis’ team said in a statement they’re focused on a “positive campaign” while others “dredge up old debates” and “manufacture division.” Phillips told the Star she feels the party is “going from a politics of addition to a politics of subtraction” and warned against alienating longtime New Democrat organizers.

Bea Bruske, the president of the Canadian Labour Congress and a backer of Ashton, said she is ready to support whoever the new leader is, though she urged candidates to focus on bread-and-butter issues.

“What’s going to make the difference is whether or not the remainder of the NDP members coalesce around that leader,” Bruske told the Star. “It is our job to actually coalesce around whoever ends up leading our party, because there’s too much at stake right now not to.”

And leadership races “tend to exaggerate differences,” and paint the choices as “do or die,” said Ray Guardia, a key NDP operative in the Layton years who recently endorsed Lewis.

Johnston, the leadership hopeful, said the party can’t hinge its future on any single leader.

“Building a party solely around like a figurehead is not going to create longevity and a really strongly rooted party,” Johnston told the Star. “There’s more strength in the mass membership than there is in any one individual.”