S&P/TSX composite gains ground as oil prices rise, U.S. markets slide

TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index finished higher on Tuesday, while U.S. markets were mixed amid uncertainty about how long the Iran war will last.

“I think the market is really hoping for better news, and they may not get that,” said Theresa Shutt, chief investment officer at Harbourfront Wealth Management.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 57.78 points at 31,941.59.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 84.41 points at 46,124.06. The S&P 500 index was down 24.63 points at 6,556.37, while the Nasdaq composite was down 184.87 points at 21,761.89.

Markets have been on a roller coaster since U.S. President Donald Trump raised hopes that the war with Iran could end soon when he said Monday that the United States and Iran held productive talks “regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East.” His announcement, which came just before Wall Street opened for trading, caused financial markets worldwide to reverse momentum immediately.

It calmed worries that the war may cause a long-term disruption to the oil and natural gas industry in the Persian Gulf, one big enough to send a blast of inflation to the region’s customers worldwide.

The May crude oil contract was up US$4.22 at US$92.35 per barrel.

But financial markets have since gotten both encouraging and discouraging signals about the conflict.

On one side, attacks continued in the Middle East on Tuesday after Iran denied having direct talks with the United States. On the other, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif wrote on X that his country is ready to “facilitate meaningful and conclusive talks” to end the Iran war.

“Maybe these de-escalation hopes, they’re fading with respect to the war with Iran, and I think that’s what you’re seeing at least this afternoon,” Shutt said.

The Fed came into this year with expectations of resuming its cuts to interest rates, which would give the economy a boost. But oil prices have jumped so much and the threat of high inflation is so large that traders have nearly erased their bets for a cut to rates this year.

Instead, some are even betting on the possibility that the Fed may have to hike rates this year, according to data from CME Group. That was a nearly unthinkable scenario before the war began. Higher interest rates would slow the economy, but they would also help keep a lid on inflation.

Gains on Canada’s benchmark index came from the basic materials and utilities sectors.

Separately, shares of Dollarama Inc. lost 9.60 per cent on Tuesday, after the retailer reported its fourth-quarter results

As conflict in the Middle East drives up the cost of many daily essentials, the head of Dollarama says the company will try to resist hiking its own prices as much as possible.

“As oil goes up, the cost of any daily essential really becomes more expensive and so they have indicated that the energy costs will permeate through their supply chain,” Shutt said.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.65 cents US, according to XE.com, compared with 72.90 cents US on Monday.