More Americans are looking at Ontario cottages, but market remains in a 'holding pattern'

“It’s just Groundhog Day for us; we’re just in a holding pattern,” he said. “It’s just historically low activity, that’s really the headline for me.” 

In 2025, the median price of a single-family home in Ontario’s recreational property market increased by just 0.4 per cent year over year to $631,100, compared to 2024, according to Royal LePage’s 2026 Spring Recreational Property Report released Thursday morning.

During the same period, the median price for single-family waterfront property decreased five per cent to $809,900, while condos decreased by 0.6 per cent to $484,400.

The median price of a single-family home in Ontario’s recreational regions is forecast to increase 2 per cent in 2026, falling short of the national forecast of four per cent, the report said.

O’Rourke said there’s “nothing scientific” behind the price forecast. It’s based on historical performance and the assumption that buyers can only wait on the sidelines for so long. But that was before the Iran war and mounting geopolitical turmoil.

“Recreational is discretionary spending,” he said. “There’s a wait-and-see approach, and these purchases are first to be affected.” 

While there is similar supply and demand to last years market, he said, the average days on market for listings has increased compared to last year. 

“Demand in Muskoka’s recreational market is being driven largely by buyers searching in the upper price tiers who are less sensitive to broader market pressures and interest rate increases,” said O’Rourke.

Pauline Aunger, broker of record, Royal LePage Advantage Real Estate in Rideau Lakes, Ont., said the region is seeing steady inventory levels and sustained buyer interest but buyers are also taking longer to make decisions. 

“Many buyers are retirees seeking waterfront properties for full-time living, and we are also seeing interest from those exploring rental opportunities,” Aunger said. 

Even with a quiet market, around 25 per cent of experts in Ontario reported an increase in the number of American buyers inquiring about cottages, and there is also an increase in interest from domestic buyers wishing to “Buy Canadian.” 

“Canadians are continuing to swap traditional cross-border getaways for at-home alternatives,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage.

“Research we conducted in mid-2025 indicated that 54 per cent of Canadians who own property in the U.S. plan to sell, with many intending to reinvest those proceeds back into Canadian real estate.”

Canada’s recreational markets continue to attract American buyers, he added, supported by a strong U.S. dollar and “a break from the sharper political climate south of the border.” 

Even though Canada introduced a ban on foreign homebuyers to combat housing supply and price challenges, Soper said, most recreational properties are exempt from the ban, helping to sustain international demand in these regions.