Up to 40 Conservative MPs fear Pierre Poilievre will cost them their seats, insiders say

Several other federal Conservative caucus sources said they were not aware of any discussions about using powers MPs have under the Reform Act. That law says if 20 per cent of a caucus (or 28 of Poilievre’s current 140-member caucus) sign a letter it would force a secret caucus ballot that could oust a sitting leader.

But a second source confirmed the first source’s estimation that more than three dozen MPs fear they cannot win re-election under Poilievre.

“That’s real,” said the second source, who, like most interviewed for this story, declined to be identified in order to speak freely about caucus tensions.

“People are looking at the polls and they’re saying, you know what, I’m not going to win. This guy isn’t able to change it around and he’s not making the changes around him,” said the second source. “It’s just a matter of self-survival.”

“Pierre’s got to go,” said the first source.

Whether or not any MPs actually make a move against Poilievre is unclear. Several MPs said at the least there will be tough questions asked at next Wednesday’s caucus meeting. But what many observed is that the Conservatives are in a rut.

A senior Liberal source, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said conversations are ongoing with eight Conservative MPs about possibly crossing the floor. The Liberal declined to name them, but said they believed two or three of the conversations are advanced to the point where further defections could come during the Montreal convention.

Conservative MP Mike Dawson, one of three MPs who told the Star they support Poilievre, said the floor crossers’ defections say more about political opportunism than anything about the leader.

“If there’s any more that want to go I wish they’d just go and be done with it.”

Ontario Conservative MPs are particularly worried about their chances of re-election, said a third source, a Tory MP, and they are closely tracking riding-level polling data online. That source questioned whether Poilievre would survive: “With so many worrying that they may lose their seat, he may not even get a shot at another election.”

A fourth Conservative insider said it was up to Poilievre to reverse the political slide.

Sarnia—Lambton—Bkejwanong MP Marilyn Gladu stunned her caucus colleagues by crossing to the government benches Wednesday. She is the fourth Conservative — and fifth MP overall — to defect to the Carney government, crossing one day before Liberals gather in Montreal for a policy convention.

“It is such a shock,” said a fifth Conservative who said Gladu endorsed Poilievre for leader early on. A vocal critic of vaccine mandates, she was Poilievre’s civil liberties shadow minister. Her defection is frustrating, said the MP, because it “feeds a narrative” that MPs can only do good things for their riding or their country if they join the government.

“That’s not true, number one, and it shouldn’t be.”

Gladu’s defection was all the more surprising because she is seen by her colleagues, in the words of one, “not as a centre-conservative, but more of a right-wing conservative.” 

Still, some of Poilievre’s internal critics say they would never follow Gladu, preferring to ride out Poilievre’s tenure and aim to rebuild the party.

“I don’t want a party of crazies. We need to be a party that’s viewed as reasonable, and have good judgment. There has to be an alternative to Liberals because they (voters) will swing one day and I don’t want to swing it to what we have right now because it’d be no different than the U.S. in some ways,” said the second insider who spoke to the Star.

Poilievre reacted to Gladu’s exit via a statement on “X” by criticizing Carney for what he calls an undemocratic power play.

“Mark Carney seizing a costly Liberal majority that voters denied him, and doing so through backroom deals,” the leader said, citing Gladu’s own words in January that “floor crossers should face voters in a byelection to give voters the final say. I could not agree more. She should do so.”

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Flanking Carney at a photo opportunity, Gladu did not directly criticize Poilievre but offered praise for the prime minister.

“We need a serious leader who can address the uncertainty that has arrived due to the unjustified American tariffs. We need a global leader with a plan to make a more resilient Canada, a stronger Canada, more self-reliant Canada, for this critical moment, and that man is our prime minister, Mark Carney.”

The question now is whether Poilievre can keep his grip on a restive caucus, despite his winning more than 87 per cent support of party members in a leadership review two months ago.

Poilievre’s convention victory does not protect him forever, the fourth Conservative said, adding while the leader has changed his tone in public, internal shifts have not occurred. On the prospect of MPs triggering the Reform Act to oust Poilievre, the source noted that winning elections keeps people disciplined, while losing does not.

A sixth Conservative MP said they don’t see anyone who could realistically replace Poilievre and keep the party united.

“Who do you think you can win with?” the MP asked. “And if you can’t answer that question then shut the f—- up.”

With files from Robert Benzie and Ryan Tumilty