VICTORIA – The lead forecaster for the BC Wildfire Service said a relatively wet and mild winter across much of British Columbia is “really good news” for the upcoming wildfire season.
Matt MacDonald said a lack of frost meant trees and soil were able to soak up moisture, and the wildfire outlook for spring is “near normal, if not below normal.”
But MacDonald also pointed to a larger, climate-change related warming trend and the variability of the snowpack across the province, which is raising some concern.
The lack of snow on the bottom of some valleys is “going to be a key component to keep an eye on,” MacDonald said.
“The severity of the 2026 fire season will depend on the amount of precipitation that we see in May and June, and not just in terms of amounts, of how much we get, but in the frequency and duration of that rain,” he said.
He added it would be more ideal if B.C. were to get small amounts of rain in a consistent and prolonged fashion.
The forecaster also compared the current situation to past outlooks.
“Not to sound like broken record, but we are seeing more and more of these above-normal, warmer-than-normal summer outlooks, right?” he said. “So, there’s no doubt our climate is changing here in British Columbia and throughout Canada.”
MacDonald made his comments Thursday during an update on B.C.‘s seasonal emergency preparedness, including warnings that although the average snowpack across the province is 92 per cent of normal, high variability means some areas face drought risk, while others could be flooded.
The snowpack is low for Vancouver Island, the South Coast and the southern Interior, which all could be vulnerable to water shortages and drought, the government said.
But Randene Neill, minister of land, water and resource management, said other areas including the upper Fraser, the Nechako region, the Central Coast and the Kootenays face a higher risk of flooding, because their snowpack has been steady or rising.
She called the 92 per cent average snowpack as of April 1 a “significant jump” compared with the same time last year, but pointed to the variability across various regions.
“So, no matter where you are in B.C., we will need to be mindful of conditions, depending on how the spring and this summer unfold,” she told the briefing on Thursday.
Neill said that while the provincial government relies heavily on local governments to ensure adequate water supplies, the province will occasionally step in to protect streams or rivers during critically low periods with temporary protection orders.
“We only had to do that once last year, and we did in partnership with industry and farmers and agriculture, who had already pretty much voluntarily stopped using that water system, because they knew how critically low it was,” Neill said.
That order covered 490 users in the B.C. interior.
David Campbell, head of the BC River Forecast Centre, said the snowpack is especially low in the Okanagan, with some sites recording historically low levels.
Forests Minister Ravi Parmar said the BC Wildfire Service is ready, having received a record 2,400 applications for seasonal firefighting jobs, on the top of the existing 600 permanent positions.
“Come May 4, the BC Wildfire Service will be fully staffed with its team of 2,200 personnel in place to manage this year’s wildfire season,” Parmar said.
Parmar said the government has also invested in additional equipment worth $14 million, and is increasing the use of technology.
The province is preparing for wildfire season against the backdrop of a record deficit forecast of $13.3 billion for this fiscal year.
Emergency Management Minister Kelly Greene said the government will spend what is necessary to keep people safe.
“That’s regardless of whether it’s wildfire or flood or earthquake or tsunami,” she said.
“We will be there with communities, keeping people safe, protecting folks and helping them through that emergency.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published April 16, 2026.
