Mark Carney enjoys Parisian calm as Donald Trump storms toward the G7 summit

In practice, the mood in the French capital was calm on Friday, even confident as Prime Minister Mark Carney arrived on the European continent for a pre-summit meeting with French President Emmanuel Macron ahead of a weekend hop to Ireland.

Macron declared France’s fidelity for Canada, noting that in addition to culture, history and language, the two nations “share the same strategic read (of the world) and a conviction that our democracies have an essential role to play in the international order.”

Carney reciprocated, saying that Canada and France “are part of the same family.”

They met at the Elysée presidential palace to discuss everything from artificial intelligence to the sharing of traditional intelligence—the kind that bolsters national security and defence partnerships.

But that bilateral harmony between Ottawa and Paris risks being sorely tested—and soon.

The G7 begins on Monday.

The summit will bring the political tornado that is Trump to the lakeside resort town of Evian-les Bains, along with more than a dozen other leaders.

The core G7 leaders will kick off with a private dinner Monday, after which they will start working on solutions to the world’s most intractable disputes.

Ukraine, Iran, Israel and Palestine and online threats—particularly to children—are all on the agenda.

And once the proceedings begin, the unanimity could quickly end.

“There will be some issues where there are strongly held views by one of the G7 partners that are more extreme than others,” said Carney.

He knows of what he speaks after having hosted the 2025 G7 summit in Alberta and seeking unanimity with the newly elected Trump, only to see the U.S. leader bailed out early to direct his country’s aerial attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities.

It was also Trump who, in a fit of anger at then-prime minister Justin Trudeau, pulled his support from a final G7 communique in 2018.

“I’m not afraid that it’s the United States (against) the others,” Carney insisted Friday, adding that the leaders were looking for “common solutions.”

But it could take some creativity to get to a common ground.

Creon Butler, a British veteran of G7 summits who now runs the Global Economy and Finance program at the London-based Chatham House think tank, noted that there was “quite a big gap on a number of issues.” Included among them are the commitment by some countries to cut their greenhouse gas emissions to zero by 2050.

One way the G7’s French hosts are bridging that gap is to avoid any talk of “climate change,” and to speak instead “about things that serve the purpose of climate change.”

“They’ve got ‘water’ and ‘environmental health.’ They’ve got ‘oceans,’ ‘biodiversity,’ and ‘financing,’” Butler said. “They don’t mention the word ‘climate change’ but quite a lot of this is kind of helpful to a climate agenda.”

Whatever language is ultimately employed, Carney insisted that the more intimate, direct and fluid format of the annual summit lends itself to a positive outcome.

“In the G20, leaders read the statement. It’s not exactly like that, but it’s largely like that,” he said. “And in the G7, it’s more of a direct discussion, and that’s one of the great advantages.”

This time around, Trump and the fate of a framework peace deal with Iran that was inching toward agreement Friday could prove to be the summit’s curveball issue.

If agreement between Washington and Iran can be reached over the weekend, Trump’s fellow leaders will be under pressure to follow through on the pledge of an international mission to free the Strait of Hormuz, the international shipping lane through which Gulf states sent their oil to markets.

Carney said that Canada is prepared to contribute to an international mission but only “once the strait is open.”

“I’m hopeful, maybe is the best way to put this, that there will be additional progress in terms of establishing a cessation of hostilities and something for the G7 and the main countries from the region coming to the special session for those discussions,” he said.

“In Canada, we will look to do our part so that we can support a broader effort if the moment is presenting itself. There’s still a few days to come for that.”

Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi posted to social media Friday that a memorandum of understanding to end the conflict “has never been closer.” That would seem to bolster Trump’s optimism that the conflict might be reaching an end.

But if those efforts to reach a deal collapse, watch out: anything could happen.