Navdeep Bains says his strength is Doug Ford's weakness

The former cabinet minister who dropped out of federal politics five years ago is now the presumed front-runner in the race to be Ontario’s next Liberal leader. And, potentially, premier.

Much has changed since he left.

Now 49, Bains is older, perhaps wiser and assuredly wealthier after all those years in the private sector — but humbler. By his own admission — possibly lowering expectations — he’s “a bit rusty” as he tries to “get my sea legs” in the province’s turbulent political waters.

There are other big changes since he left politics: Ontarians are feeling poorer and gloomier, more wary of politicians at a time of less affordability.

But there’s also been a change in Doug Ford, Bains argues.

Liberals cannot deny that more people voted for Ford’s Tories than any other party in the last three elections. They believed what Ford was selling.

But it’s not selling anymore. The premier who supposedly fought against the gravy train ended up buying himself a private executive jet instead.

Bains believes that marks a metaphorical turning point for Ford’s government. And an opportunity for Liberals who have long languished in third place in the legislature.

Can the candidate give his party, and the province, something to believe in? While Bains is a familiar face with high name recognition in Liberal circles, he jokes about how his phone stopped ringing as soon as he left public life.

For Bains, it’s not just a question of affordability but the economy. More than merely cutting taxes, the provincial government must invest in education and health care to position Ontario for an economic rebound.

Rather than routinely running up the deficit and piling on debt without results, Queen’s Park must get value for money. Instead of tolerating the country’s highest youth unemployment rate, the province must train them for the jobs of tomorrow.

“Doug Ford talks a big game on the economy — that’s where I’m going to challenge him,” he says.

Bains will run on his policy stances, but also stress his personal story — the son of working-class immigrants who made their way in Toronto’s Jane and Finch area before moving to Brampton (he now lives in Mississauga). A chartered professional accountant and financial analyst who worked in the auto sector before running for politics, he later went on to senior positions at CIBC and Rogers.

“My experience in the private sector and at the cabinet table sets me apart,” he tells me and my Star colleague Robert Benzie during an hour-long interview at an Etobicoke coffee shop. “At the cabinet table as industry minister I fought for jobs every single day.”

He also lost his own job as a politician, experiencing the sting of defeat in the 2011 election that devastated the federal Liberals. Bains had spent years in opposition before the election loss, then threw himself into rebuilding the party — making a comeback in 2015 and joining the cabinet of Justin Trudeau as industry minister.

That experience in opposition and out of office, along with his years in power, gives him an advantage in leading the provincial Liberals back to power, Bains tells me.

“We did it federally when we did the rebuild in 2013 and 2014, so I’ve got a track record of taking a party from third to first and doing that hard work,” he says. “This is not the first time I’m putting my name on a ballot.”

But any rebuild must also be rural, because the party’s roots have withered outside the big cities and towns of Ontario.

“You’ve got to first show up, you’ve got to listen, then you’ve got to identify good local candidates,” says Bains, who showed up at our interview without any entourage or handlers, dressed in black sneakers, jeans, open-necked shirt and a sports jacket.

Bains has a formidable reputation as a political organizer and fundraiser. He jokes about having to relinquish the reins to his campaign team while he focuses on being the candidate — leading the charge, not organizing it.

Like his two main leadership rivals, MPPs Rob Cerjanec and Lee Fairclough, Bains is focusing on small events where he meets local Liberals face to face rather than any larger events. (Policy adviser Dylan Marando and financial technology engineer Eric Lombardi are also running.) Unlike the two MPPs, Bains lacks a seat; he has no specific plans to get one in a byelection soon, but has committed to running for the provincial party in the next general election, win or lose.

What was his legacy in Ottawa? Is he an industry cheerleader or captain of industry?

“The world has changed a lot since I left, and we’re seeing some of that industrial policy play out now federally with Mark Carney,” Bains tells me. “I understand how the federal policies work, and I will make sure that if I become leader and premier, Ontario will get more than its fair share when it comes to the investments they’re making.”