Doug Ford says he's sticking around. That hasn't stopped speculation about his successor as PC leader

The undeclared race exists largely as quiet chatter among ministers, MPPs, political aides, consultants, lobbyists and journalists, who constantly speculate about who may be angling for the top job.

As such, while there are no formal campaigns ready to spring into action if there is a leadership vacancy, there is much conversation in the shadows about what will happen when the larger-than-life premier exits the stage.

Ford, who has led the Tories to three consecutive landslide victories, increasing the party’s share of the popular vote each time, insists he isn’t leaving before the next election expected in 2029 or 2030.

“I look forward to leading (this party) to win a historic fourth majority mandate,” he told 1,000 supporters on Jan. 31.

But at 61, Ford is already older than his predecessors Bill Davis, Mike Harris and Dalton McGuinty were when they stunned the public — and their respective PC and Liberal caucuses — by resigning while still in power.

Davis was 55 while Harris and McGuinty were both 57 when they quit as premier.

In each instance, their parties were blindsided by a long-serving leader calling it a day and scrambled to choose replacements.

Sources close to Ford — who, like more than a dozen other Tories interviewed for this story, spoke confidentially in order to discuss internal deliberations — maintain his January salvo was not aimed at pretenders to his throne.

They contend he was merely giving his party some certainty about the future in an uncertain time.

However, running Canada’s second-largest government can take a toll on whoever is premier and, in recent weeks, Ford — who does not eat red meat or drink alcohol but smokes cigarettes — has publicly cited his heavy workload.

So, who would want such a demanding gig?

Insiders at Queen’s Park confide the list is long and dominated by ministers, but emphasize any leadership jockeying isn’t affecting their day jobs or undermining the work of Ford’s 37-member executive council.

Potential cabinet contenders include:

• Lecce, 39, a trusted Ford ally whose public appointments schedule is almost as packed as the premier’s. Highly regarded by his ministerial and caucus colleagues for attending their fundraisers and helping on their campaigns, he is a fixture at community events across Ontario.

• Finance Minister and Treasury Board President Peter Bethlenfalvy, 63, a savvy former Bay Street and Wall Street executive, would likely be the preferred candidate of big business and the credit-rating agencies, one of which he used to run. Bethlenfalvy — more fiscally conservative than the big-spending Ford, who jokes the treasurer is “as tight as skin on a grape” — is not fiercely partisan and is friends with members of Liberal Prime Minister Mark Carney’s inner circle.

• Education Minister Paul Calandra, 56, one of the strongest performers in cabinet, was parachuted in as Mr. Fix-It in the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Housing after the Greenbelt land swap scandal erupted three years ago. Hell-bent on reforming the governance of education boards, Calandra can be a combative Tory partisan in the legislature but is an effective communicator. His spouse, Melanie Calandra, is executive director of the PC party.

• Transportation Minister Prabmeet Sarkaria, 37, who is entrusted with top Ford priorities like the expansion of Billy Bishop Toronto City Airport and construction of Highway 413, the Bradford Bypass and the Ontario Line subway. The affable Sarkaria has calmly weathered the storm of criticism the Tories faced from some quarters for trying to limit bike lanes in Toronto. 

• Environment Minister Todd McCarthy, 63. He’s a friend and long-time law partner of former deputy premier Christine Elliott and her late husband, Jim Flaherty, a power couple that between them ran for the PC leadership in 2002, 2004, 2009, 2015 and 2018. They finished second four times and third once, but McCarthy learned much on those campaigns.

• Municipal Affairs and Housing Minister Rob Flack, 67, a successful businessman with a long history in the party’s grassroots despite being first elected just four years ago. For support, Flack would be able to tap into a network of mayors, reeves and councillors in 444 Ontario municipalities as well as from his corporate career.

• Indigenous Affairs and First Nations Reconciliation Minister Greg Rickford, 58, who is also Ford’s point man for economic partnerships in the massive Ring of Fire mining initiative. A lawyer and former nurse who worked on Indigenous reserves as a younger man, Rickford was previously a federal cabinet minister and is colloquially known as the King of the North at Queen’s Park.

Outside cabinet, former ministers Monte McNaughton, 49, who left politics before the Greenbelt debacle, and Caroline Mulroney, 52, who stepped down earlier this month, are frequently touted.

McNaughton, a former labour minister now working in the private sector, briefly ran for the 2015 PC leadership when he was endorsed by the premier’s late brother, Toronto mayor Rob Ford. He was the first PC minister to march in Toronto’s Labour Day parade in generations and was instrumental in building the “Big Blue Collar Machine” that attracted union members to the Tory voter coalition in the 2022 election.

Mulroney, the daughter of the late former prime minister Brian Mulroney, was probably Ford’s best-known minister despite her notorious media shyness. A bilingual lawyer, she is also seen as a possible federal Conservative leader.

But Brampton’s popular two-term mayor, who will seek his third mandate this October, is probably the strongest contender from outside cabinet.

Brown, 48, resigned as PC leader in January 2018 after CTV News alleged sexual impropriety with two young women while he was a federal Conservative MP. He always denied the allegations and a 2022 joint statement with CTV issued after he settled a defamation suit said “key details provided to CTV for the story were factually incorrect and required correction.”

A superb organizer with one of the best Rolodexes in Canadian politics, Brown beat Elliott for the PC crown in 2015 and ran for the federal Conservative leadership in 2022 while serving as mayor.

While he was disqualified over allegations of campaign violations made against his team by the federal Tories, those were ultimately dismissed by the Office of the Commissioner of Canada Elections

Several Tories privately told the Star that just as Brown’s 2018 resignation paved the way for Ford’s ascension, the premier could one day return the favour.

They argue that if the mayor wanted to be leader again, he could do it.