A new Toronto Pulse survey shows Mayor Olivia Chow maintaining a clear lead over Councillor Brad Bradford — even as Bradford continues to chip away at her advantage — while most residents say the 2026 FIFA World Cup has been good for the city.
The Liaison Strategies poll, conducted June 28–30 among 1,000 Toronto residents, finds Chow at 49 per cent support among decided and leaning voters, compared with 40 per cent for Bradford. Another 10 per cent say they would choose someone else.
Chow’s support has barely moved since May, when she sat at 50 per cent. Bradford, however, has climbed from 37 per cent to 40 per cent.
Bradford gaining ground, but still trailing
David Valentin, principal at Liaison Strategies, said the race remains Chow’s to lose, but Bradford is making measurable gains.
“This is still Olivia Chow’s race,” Valentin said. “But the movement since May is toward Bradford. Chow is essentially flat, while Bradford is up.”
Among all voters — including undecided respondents — Bradford has risen from 28 per cent to 32 per cent, while the undecided share has dropped from 24 per cent to 20 per cent.
Chow’s approval softens
Chow’s job approval remains positive but has slipped to 51 per cent, down from 54 per cent in May and marking her lowest rating since September 2025. Disapproval sits at 43 per cent.
Another warning sign for City Hall: Torontonians are now evenly split on whether the city is headed in the right direction. Right‑direction and wrong‑direction responses are tied at 46 per cent, compared with a 50–46 split in May.
Regionally, Chow dominates downtown with 69 per cent support among decided voters. Bradford leads in Etobicoke (55 per cent to 35 per cent), while North York and Scarborough remain competitive.
World Cup earns strong public approval
The survey also shows Torontonians are broadly positive about hosting World Cup matches. 61 per cent say the tournament has been good for the city, while 29 per cent say it has been bad.
Support is even stronger for future events: 63 per cent want Toronto to host more major international sporting competitions.
Still, disruptions were felt. Eighteen per cent of residents say World Cup crowds or road closures changed their commute or travel plans, and another 18 per cent say they avoided downtown entirely.
Valentin said the mixed feelings reflect a familiar dynamic.
“People can be frustrated by the disruption and still see value in the event,” he said.
The survey used Interactive Voice Recording (IVR) technology and random digit dialling across landline and cellular networks.
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