Chow holds lead over Bradford as Toronto voters split on city’s direction, latest poll shows

Mayor Olivia Chow maintains an 8‑point advantage over Councillor Brad Bradford among decided and leaning voters, according to a new Liaison Strategies Toronto Pulse survey — but the city’s mood remains sharply divided, creating a more competitive race than earlier in the year.

The poll, conducted July 24–26 among 1,000 Toronto residents, finds Chow at 49 per cent among decided and leaning voters, with Bradford at 41 per cent and other candidates at 10 per cent. Those numbers mirror Liaison’s early‑July findings, where Chow also sat at 49 per cent and Bradford at 40 per cent.

Among all voters — including undecided respondents — Chow holds 39 per cent, Bradford 33 per cent, and others 8 per cent, while 20 per cent remain undecided.

City split on direction

One of the most consequential findings is that Torontonians are evenly divided on whether the city is headed in the right direction. Forty-six per cent say Toronto is moving the right way, 46 per cent say the opposite, and 8 per cent are unsure.

Liaison principal David Valentin says that split is politically significant. Chow’s personal numbers remain stable — 51 per cent approve of her performance, while 43 per cent disapprove — but a mixed city mood gives Bradford room to keep tightening the race, Valentin noted.

Bradford becoming more defined to Toronto voters

Bradford’s profile continues to rise, the latest poll shows. His favourability has increased to 31 per cent, up from 29 per cent, while his unfavourability has also climbed to 26 per cent. The share of voters unfamiliar with him has dropped from 35 per cent to 31 per cent, a sign he is becoming a more established challenger.

Valentin notes that as Bradford becomes better known, both positive and negative impressions are rising — a typical pattern for a candidate gaining visibility.

Chow leads Bradford among decided and leaning voters in:

• Downtown: 55 per cent to 36 per cent
• North York: 52 per cent to 37 per cent
• Scarborough: 50 per cent to 41 per cent

Bradford’s strongest region is Etobicoke, where he leads 54 per cent to 35 per cent.

The survey used IVR technology and random digit dialling across landline and cellular networks.