The first Toronto mayoral election poll since former MP Chris Alexander entered the race Wednesday shows he has siphoned support from contender Brad Bradford.
A telephone survey conducted by Forum Research on Wednesday showed Alexander debuting with the support of 11 per cent of respondents. Mayor Olivia Chow leads with 47 per cent and Bradford is in second place at 32 per cent — down from 36 per cent in the same poll without Alexander in the mix.
This marks a reversal of fortune for Bradford, who is currently councillor for Beach—East York. Recent polls showed what had been a two-horse race between him and Chow tightening. A survey released earlier this month by Liaison Strategies had Bradford at 40 per cent support and Chow at 49 per cent.
Alexander has never worked at city hall. He was elected MP for Ajax-Pickering in 2011, and served as minister of citizenship and immigration under former prime minister Stephen Harper from 2013 to 2015. He stirred controversy when he supported the Conservatives’ 2015 election pledge to create a “barbaric cultural practices” hotline, a proposal that received considerable backlash and drew widespread accusations of racism.
Bradford, who has been running to the right of Chow and, up until this point, escaped having to compete with other challengers for conservative voters, told reporters Wednesday he thinks Alexander is “unfit for office” because of the hotline proposal. He also said he hadn’t heard of Alexander before he registered for the race.
The Forum poll initially asked respondents to choose between Chow, Bradford and “someone else.” Then it asked the same people the same question but provided Alexander as a fourth option.
The 11 per cent support Alexander then received pulled six per cent from the “someone else” camp, four per cent of support from Bradford and one per cent point from Chow.
“When Chris Alexander is added to the ballot, Chow’s support remains virtually unchanged, while Bradford’s support declines, suggesting Alexander draws more heavily from voters seeking an alternative to the mayor,” said Forum Research president Lorne Bozinoff.
Bozinoff said it is notable that Chow still maintains a “commanding lead” despite low approval ratings. He said this indicates that while many voters “have reservations about her performance,” they still see her as the “preferred choice for mayor.”
Overall, 40 per cent of respondents approved of the mayor and 42 per cent disapproved of the job she’s doing. The individual issue she fared best on was crime, with 33 per cent approval and 45 per cent disapproval. She polled worst on traffic congestion, with 29 per cent approval against 52 per cent disapproval.
Bozinoff said if Alexander maintains this level of support he’s more than likely earned a ticket to debate stages and could be regarded as a serious contender. The first mayoral election debate will be held on Aug. 24.
These results are “exactly what Bradford didn’t want,” said Bozinoff.
The poll used 1,011 randomly selected Toronto residents over the age of 18. Results based on the total sample are considered accurate +/- 4.0 per cent, 19 times out of 20.
