Three federal byelections Monday include one in Beaches–East York

Here’s a look at the three races, and how this summer’s politics might play out in each of them.

Chicoutimi—Le Fjord

Of the three byelections set to be decided Monday night, Chicoutimi—Le Fjord is expected to be the closest and the most closely watched. 

In the 2025 general election, Conservative candidate Richard Martel won the riding in a tight race, with just more than 1,500 votes than the third-place Liberal candidate.

After Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said in April that Prime Minister Mark Carney should appoint more Conservative senators, the prime minister granted that wish in July, plucking Martel from the House of Commons — and setting the stage for a byelection where the seat could flip to the Liberals. 

Philippe Fournier, editor-in-chief of polling site 338Canada, said he believes the Conservatives will lose the seat to either the Liberals or the Bloc Québécois. Until recently, he said, he would have assumed it would go to the Bloc, but the region north of Quebec City is home to aluminum smelters and other industries that Carney has been defending in the ongoing trade war with the U.S. 

“In that region, you have to figure it’s like 98 per cent francophone. You kind of have to put the Bloc as a default setting,” Fournier said. “But the events of the past month, and of the past week especially, really impact these people. So did Carney make a good enough impression to perhaps push the Liberals across the finish line?” 

The Liberal candidate is Daniel Gobeil, a dairy farmer and a former chair of Les Producteurs de lait du Québec. The Conservatives are running lawyer Régis Gaudreault, and the Bloc candidate is Caroline Dubé, who has worked for Bloc MPs and in local government. 

Martel was a popular local figure, having coached the area’s major junior hockey team for eight years. Fournier said the Conservatives will be in a difficult position if they lose the seat by more than a small dip in support from the 34 per cent they garnered in the last election.

“It used to be a pretty reliable Conservative seat,” he said. “I’m not sure what the biggest storyline is, but I think the results for Conservative could also be very interesting.” 

Beaches—East York

The Liberals have held this Toronto riding for more than a decade, and hope to keep it that way after the polls close on Monday. 

Nate Erskine-Smith represented Beaches—East York from 2015 until this summer, when he resigned to seek a seat on Toronto city council. His departure led to the only contested nomination the Liberals have held since before the 2025 election, with four contenders vying to represent the party. Tanveer Shahnawaz, Erskine Smith’s former constituency manager, won that contest. 

Erskine-Smith had a margin of victory of nearly 26,000 votes last year. While the Conservatives finished second in last year’s campaign, races there have traditionally been contests between the Liberal and NDP candidates. 

The New Democrats are running union organizer Shannon Devine, and NDP Leader Avi Lewis spent four days campaigning in the riding last week. 

The byelection was called just days after the government announced it wouldn’t support the expansion of Billy Bishop airport, which the NDP has focused on in the campaign. 

North Vancouver—Capilano 

Voters looking to weigh in on Carney’s agenda will have their chance in North Vancouver—Capilano, where the Liberal candidate is one of the people who helped to draft it. Braeden Caley  was parachuted into the riding fresh from a post as Carney’s deputy chief of staff.

In early July, the prime minister promised billions in new spending in British Columbia on port expansions, a new commuter tunnel and support for liquid natural gas export facilities, while the provincial government agreed not to actively stand in the way of a proposed pipeline from Alberta. Before the campaign got started, Caley said moving from staffer to candidate was about seeing through that work. 

“It is an important opportunity to serve in a way that can help see projects come to fruition faster for British Columbia, get homes built faster here, and do all of that in a way that’s very different than what our Conservative opponents in this byelection would do,” he said.

The Conservatives are running Stephen Curran, a lawyer who — unlike Caley — has deep roots in the community. However, as the riding’s Conservative candidate in last year’s general election, he also finished nearly 17,000 votes behind former Liberal MP Jonathan Wilkinson. 

Will these elections change the majority math in the House of Commons?

As of Monday morning, there are 170 Liberal MPs, 166 opposition MPs and seven vacant seats in the House of Commons. That means even if the Liberals were to lose all three of Monday’s byelections, they would still retain a slim majority.

Are there more to come? 

Six more byelections are now on the horizon. The Quebec riding of Saint-Hyacinthe—Bagot—Acton has been vacant since Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay stepped down in June to run provincially. Scarborough North MP Shaun Chen announced he was resigning in August and is now running for Toronto city council. Cathay Wagantall, a Saskatchewan Conservative MP, is resigning her Yorkton—Melville seat on Monday, but her seat won’t become officially vacant until the end of the day.  

Two Montreal MPs, Liberal Steven Guilbeault and NDP MP Alexandre Boulerice, formally resigned last week, and Conservative MP Larry Brock announced earlier this summer that his last day in office would be Sept. 18.