The disappearance of Pierre Poilievre

In remarks made available to The Canadian Press last month, Vance referred to the Conservative leader as “this guy Pierre Poilievre or something,” and told the fundraiser audience that he was a non-entity when it came to trade negotiations.

Poilievre was also a non-entity in the three byelections held on Monday, with Conservatives placing third in two of them and dropping an average of 10.6 points in public support across all three. Pollster Dan Arnold, who used to work for Justin Trudeau, sees something familiar about what’s going on with Poilievre.

“When the wheels came off for Trudeau in 2024, he lost an average of 13 pts across 5 byelexns,” Arnold posted on X after surveying the damage done to the Conservatives by Monday’s votes.

Monday’s biggest loss was the Conservative seat in Chicoutimi, which came open when MP Richard Martel was appointed to the Senate by Mark Carney. The vote share for the Conservative there dipped to 12.5 per cent, from 34.1 per cent in 2025, prompting Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet to call them, well, a non-entity.

“There are two political parties in Quebec: the Liberal Party of Canada and the Bloc Québécois,” Blanchet said after his party’s candidate placed second.

Even before the byelections, Poilievre wasn’t having a good week with the numbers. A new Liaison poll showed the Conservatives with just 29 per cent support, compared to the Liberals at 46 per cent.

And yes, some of that may be personal. The same poll showed Poilievre with a 55 per cent unfavourable rating, compared to 64 per cent approval rating for Carney.

The Conservative leader may be comforting himself with the thought that this is 2024 all over again, with Donald Trump sticking his nose into politics here and Carney reaping the benefits.

Asked about that interpretation of the byelection results, Carney flatly rejected it Tuesday morning. “No, it’s thanks to our plan,” the prime minister said. Carney didn’t even mention the Conservatives, possibly also seeing them as a non-entity at the moment.

This doesn’t feel like momentary disaffection, however. With the exception of his victory in a leadership review in January, things have been pretty much downhill for Poilievre ever since he was defeated in an election that was supposed to be an easy glide to power for the Conservatives.

He’s lost five MPs to the Liberals — six if you count Martel taking up Carney’s Senate offer — and it’s increasingly clear that the heady days of that party’s decline under Trudeau are not rolling back around anytime soon.

Poilievre has made a few efforts to be less of an attack dog — promising to talk to more than Conservative-friendly media, for instance — but those seem to have fallen by the wayside.

Whether he likes it or not, he is headed into the fall session of Parliament even weaker, with questions about how long he can carry on as leader becoming more pointed.

There are at least a few ways this could play out. His caucus could reject him, either formally with a vote to oust him, or individually with more defections. A challenger to his leadership could emerge, either from within the caucus or from outside.

Or Poilievre could simply come to the conclusion that he’s on only one road, and it doesn’t lead to the prime minister’s office.

Vance was right that Poilievre doesn’t have much of a role to play as Canada is immersed in this trade war with Trump. The vice-president is a long-time friend of Conservative MP Jamil Jivani, and praised his old Yale Law School pal as more useful.

“The quiet sort of behind-the-scenes story is that this, like, random MP who has a good relationship with us, has been a pretty effective advocate,” Vance said.

Poilievre may wince at the prospect, but his byelection blues may not be over. A total of six still need to be called and one in particular, in Brantford—Brant South—Six Nations, could be another blow to him. Larry Brock, who’s stepping down, won the riding with 52.4 per cent of the vote in the last election. It’s hard to imagine any Conservative candidate getting that kind of result, especially as that southern Ontario community, like many others, is feeling the effects of the war with Trump and looking for the kind of stability that Carney represents.

Later this month, the Conservative caucus will be gathering in Penticton, B.C. and many of its members may be going into those meetings wondering how to broach the obvious decline in the fortunes of their leader. Some may be brave enough to bring it up. Others, though, may say just as much with silence — yet another way to tell Poilievre that “non-entity” is an accurate description of where he’s at.