As Donald Trump's trade war rages, Mark Carney looks to the European Union — and it's looking back

While U.S. President Donald Trump drafts angry social media posts, Prime Minister Mark Carney is drafting a speech he’ll deliver this month to the European Parliament.

And while Washington changes the name of Lake Ontario, Ottawa is trying to shift the historical southward focus of Canada’s economy, with a key moment in that effort coming this fall.

All of this is part of carefully calibrated dance with the European Union as it and Canada move from transatlantic BFFs to something … considerably better.

“We’re sort of building this plane as we’re flying it,” said Mark Camilleri, the Brussels-based president and chief executive of the Canada EU Trade and Investment Association.

“I don’t think anybody actually has a set understanding of where we’re going to land here.”

Some have championed Canada as the eventual 28th member of the European Union. But joining a bureaucratic behemoth would be a strange choice indeed for a government trying to do big things quickly and assert its sovereignty on the global stage.

Stéphane Dion, Canada’s former ambassador to the EU and France, has suggested formally joining a looser collective known as the European Political Community. He told a Senate committee in June that membership could strengthen political ties, serve as a one-stop venue for consulting fellow leaders and “consolidate our status as ‘the most European of non-European countries.’”

Both those options also risk the wrath of a United States, which has been critical of Europe and sought greater influence and control over its geographical neighbours.

But if Canada is going to emerge from the U.S. trade war economically intact and fundamentally transformed, something more tangible than symbolism or geopolitical poetry is required.

With the North American border dispute escalating and Trump’s tariff damage looming, pressure is on to reach a new depth in the relationship with Europe in time for an annual Canada-EU meeting planned for October.

“We cannot have another summit … that just confirms that we love each other,” Joost Korte, the EU’s special envoy for Canada, told a committee of the European Parliament in the spring.

“It needs to go a bit deeper … and we need to come up with concrete things. Otherwise, we’ve failed, yes, absolutely.”

Expectations are building, and Carney stoked the fire last month when he promised “intense discussions” to deepen economic and security ties with Europe.

“We can build such unparalleled access because we’re trusted, because we’re reliable, and because we have what the world needs,” he said.

This fall, the two sides hope to finalize a digital trade agreement that could touch on everything from online commerce, consumer protections and cybersecurity to the regulation of artificial intelligence.

After Canada was accepted into Europe’s defence procurement plan, there’s the possibility of deeper integration of the Canadian and European defence industries and having the Canadian Armed Forces participate more systematically in joint training missions with their European counterparts.

Officials could also announce Canada’s full participation in Erasmus Plus, a European travel-and-study program for university students.

But the whole of the emerging Canada-EU partnership is shaping up to be bigger than the sum of its parts, said Geneviève Tuts, the EU’s ambassador to Canada.

In an interview, she said there is no precedent for the new relationship that Ottawa and Brussels are forging — not in the partnership the 27-member bloc has with the United Kingdom, Norway, Switzerland or other non-member states.

“What is going to happen is quite unique. By that, I mean there is no existing integration model that we could simply mirror,” she said. 

“We’re going to be creative and imaginative. There needs to be a name that best illustrates the depth of our relationship. I don’t think the word exists yet.”

Whatever it ends up being called, it looks set to respond to the calls of veteran Canada-EU observers.

“What I talk about is the need to stop looking at Europe as a transactional partner, but really look at it as a long-term partner, as a strategic partner,” said Camilleri.

“The relationship has, for a long time, been nice to have, but not a must-have. I think it’s definitely moved into that must-have territory in order to reach the objectives and the ambitions that the current government has expressed, and which seems to be what the Canadian population wants as well.”

It’s not just Canada that needs Europe as an alternative for goods normally sold south of the border.

The Russia-Ukraine war and the blockage in the Strait of Hormuz has exposed Europe’s reliance on oil and gas from uncertain parts of the world and the need to accelerate the transition to lower-emission energy sources. 

Javier Moreno Sanchez, a Spanish member of the European Parliament and chair of its committee on Canada-EU relations, likened Canada on the global stage to “a good student who behaves well and, because of that, has often been overlooked.

“You forget them because they’re not a problem,” he said.

But in a more turbulent, chaotic and unpredictable world, that stability and reliability is cherished, as are Canada’s vast natural riches.

“Canada has a wealth of energy resources and of critical minerals,” Korte told European parliamentarians, explaining how he had toured the country, met with officials and determined what aspects of the Canada-EU relationship hold the most promise.

“They have the stuff that we need, and so that would be a no-brainer to co-operate much more, particularly on the critical minerals,” he said. “But of course it needs to be taken out of the ground, and then it needs to come to Europe.”

Korte noted that the Carney government, with the creation of its Major Projects Office to fast-track key infrastructure construction, was serious about doubling down on Europe. But he warned, “We need to give the guarantee that these investments will pay off.”

A key indicator of Europe’s interest in developing and securing Canada’s critical minerals will come at an investment summit in Toronto on Sept. 14 and 15. Carney has set a goal of securing $1 trillion of foreign investment.

Achim Hurrelmann, a Carleton University politics professor and co-director of the school’s Centre for European Studies, said the Canada-U.S. trade war might scare off those who would invest in Canada to secure access to U.S. markets.

“The hope that setting up a base in Canada to supply the United States has become much less realistic,” said Hurrelmann. “But that’s why there’s a much of a focus on strategic raw materials, where it’s really the European interest to secure these materials to be less dependent on China.”

Already, the European Investment Bank has shown an interest in expanding into Canada with the signing last spring of a letter of intent to explore future co-operation.

But the interest expressed by larger institutional investors is having a trickle-down effect, said Yvonne Denz, head of the Toronto-based Canadian German Chamber of Industry and Commerce.

“For a lot of these medium-sized companies in Germany that are family-owned, where there’s a family office that’s taking care of the investments, Canada is … somewhat of a safe haven,” she said.

“If you look at it from a European perspective, as a country like Germany with very few resources and neighbours close by that are not always your friendly … Canada seems very, very stable.”

The forging of closer ties between Canada and Europe is a rush toward certainty.

It is, said Denz, “a signal that even though it feels like the world is breaking up and splitting apart, you have these two blocs that are forging even closer relationships.”