There are few cows in Toronto, but U.S. dairy tariffs pose a significant threat to jobs at local milk-product processors, according to an updated University of Toronto tariff-tracking tool.
How U.S. tariffs are reshaping Canada’s job market
Researchers updating a map from last October tracking U.S. tariff impacts on Canadian cities, released a major refresh on Wednesday that reveals the potentially crushing impacts of Trump’s new 50-per-cent levies on a host of Canadian imports.
The Trump tariffs that took effect Aug. 22, hitting dairy, alcohol, auto parts and more, widened the vulnerability of the Toronto regional census area to 10 per cent of all employees, including people working for dairy processors and local breweries that export to the U.S., according to new research.
In the Toronto area, “We estimate that U.S. tariffs have the potential to impact more than 8,000 businesses, almost 250,000 jobs (employment by place of work) in the city, and over 200,000 residents,” states a blog post by researchers that include Tara Vinodrai, a professor of economic geography, and Karen Chapple, professor of geography and planning who is director of U of T’s School of Cities.
Why Toronto’s dairy industry is unexpectedly at risk
While Canadians often associate dairy with Quebec farmers, “major dairy processors, including Gay Lea, Lactalis, Saputo and Agropur maintain office, distribution and/or industrial operations across the Greater Toronto Area, and represent some of the region’s largest food industry employers,” according to the blog post.
In an interview, Vinodrai said new tariffs, imposed after Canada walked away from negotiations to update the existing free-trade agreement, will be felt across the country, “widening and deepening” economic pain already felt from U.S. tariffs imposed last year on autos, aluminum, copper, lumber and more.
“So places that were already vulnerable, the vulnerability is stacking up,” including automaking hubs Windsor, Oshawa and Oakville, she said. Other places, including wine regions in Niagara, Prince Edward County and B.C.‘s Okanagan Valley, face new and dramatic risk.
While U.S. tariffs threaten more jobs in Toronto than any other Canadian city, its sheer number of employers and diversity of industries makes it less vulnerable overall to damage from losing access to U.S. markets.
Vinodrai said medium and small centres focused on sectors targeted by Trump are much more vulnerable to community-shaking job losses and business closures. They include southern Ontario hubs for aluminum products including Guelph and Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge.
U of T ranked cities’ vulnerability by estimated percentage of employees directly exposed to tariffs.
Drummondville, Que., heavily reliant on manufacturing steel products, aluminum fabrication, machinery and furniture, tops the list with 18.7 per cent exposure. Also in the top 10: Chilliwack, B.C. (agriculture and manufacturing); Windsor (automaking and cross-border trade); Guelph; Brantford (manufacturing including the Roustan hockey stick factory); Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo; Greater Sudbury (natural resources, manufacturing); Trois-Rivières (aluminum, forestry and agriculture); Abbotsford-Mission, B.C. (manufacturing, wood products); and Saguenay, Que. (dairy including cheese).
Vinodrai said Canadian “buy local” campaigns can help soften the tariffs’ blow, but mapping the impacts drives home the need for all parts of Canada to, as much as possible, reduce their reliance on the U.S. market.
“Many businesses are in tightly integrated markets and it takes time to unwind them,” from American partners and markets, she said.
“To lessen vulnerability we need to diversify supply chains and diversify markets away from the U.S. while leveraging our own diversity. We have a ripe opportunity,” to trade more with the world.
