'No chance' tariffs will negate HST rebate, as new single-family home sales triple in August

“The tariffs and the global uncertainty and the trade wars have had a rather chilling effect on the market, so the HST rebate has countered that,” said Justin Sherwood, chief operating officer at BILD.

Sherwood added there is “no chance” that the latest round of tariffs could hike development costs enough to negate the HST rebate.

The HST rebate on new homes for one year was brought in as a lifeline for the new-build industry, which has been struggling with a price gap between new and resale units, and a backlog of supply. The rebate has spurred an uptick in single-family home sales since it was brought in by the federal and provincial governments in April. Condo sales, however, are still lagging.

Single-family homes — including detached, semi-detached and townhomes, but excluding stacked townhouses — accounted for 692 GTA sales in August. That was compared to 215 sales in the same month in 2025, and is 47 per cent above the 10-year average.

The August boost brings total single-family sales for 2026 to 5,550, more than double last year’s record low and roughly in line with the 10-year average.

There were 215 condo sales in the GTA in August, including stacked townhouses and units in low-, mid- and highrise buildings. That was double the number sold in August 2025, but still 78 per cent below the 10-year average. During the pandemic, condo sales reached an August peak in 2021 with 3,149 units sold during the month.

Combined, 907 new homes sold in August, which was up from the record-low August 2025 total but still 46 per cent below the 10-year average.

The benchmark price for new single-family homes — a measure that excludes outlier sales — was $1.25 million, down 14.6 per cent from a year earlier. The benchmark price for new condominium apartments was $1.04 million, up 1.3 per cent year-over-year.

“We’re starting to see that in the GTA, townhomes are making up a large share of the single-family homes that are moving in comparison to the traditional historical pattern,” Sherwood said.

“Townhomes are being priced to maximize the HST rebate and provide consumers with what they’re looking for. I think with all of that combined, it’s all coming together to provide the momentum to buy.”

Sherwood also explained the condo market hasn’t been able to benefit from the HST rebate in the same way as single-family homes because it is difficult for projects to qualify for the program, particularly because of regulations on developments’ start and end dates.

With the region’s current home inventory and demand, it would take 38.5 months to sell all housing types on the market. In comparison, a healthy market level would take around nine to 12 months. 

The prices in the report for single-family homes and condos are gross prices, meaning they do not account for the HST rebate. BILD said it excluded the rebate to allow for “like-on-like” comparisons with previous years.

Sherwood said that after five consecutive months of increased sales for lowrise new homes, it is clear that the HST rebate program is working.

“New, single-family home prices had already moderated. From their peak in 2022 to the end of last year, they’d already gone down 25 per cent, and nothing was moving. What’s changed now, is that we have this rebate program,” he said.

BILD said the building and renovation industry provides 256,000 jobs in the region and represents $39.3 billion in investment value.

“The residential homebuilding industry is 100 per cent domestic from a labour perspective, and the vast majority of resources and inputs used come from Canadian suppliers,” Sherwood said.