The possibility of a formal alliance of some sort between Canada and the 27-member-nation European Union (EU) has lately been a fixation of economists, trade analysts and the financial press on both sides of the Atlantic.
So far, most of the commentary argues that Canada would be naïve to expect the EU to “rescue” or “save” us from the damage done by the Canada-U.S. trade war.
And that Prime Minister Mark Carney is wrong to focus on Europe when the EU has limited ability to help us. It’s a strategy that could also risk our much more important ties with the U.S.
“Don’t count on Europe to save us, Canada. The prime minister’s misguided pivot to Europe misses some key issues.” That headline is representative of the skepticism that greeted recent efforts, spearheaded by Carney, to strengthen Canada-EU economic and security ties.
Canada was invited to become the EU’s first “associate member” during Carney’s visit last week to the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France.
Euronews editor Maria Tadeo came away from Strasbourg saying, “Carney stole the show and Canada is our new associate BFF, whatever that means.”
But Canada is not on the brink of a more integrated relationship with the EU.
Instead, Canada remains engaged in a gradually evolving association with Europe that dates from the 1950s, albeit a relationship has taken on more urgency in recent months. More on that later.
But to start, Canada is not in need of “rescuing.” No one in Canada is looking abroad for salvation, least of all from a Europe that is suffering a deeper economic malaise than Canada.
The European economy has proved less resilient to Trump’s trade disruption than Canada despite the EU’s generous concessions to Trump that Canada rejected.
Canada is expected to post the second-highest rate of economic growth in the G7 next year, after the U.S.
And the Carney government is not pivoting abroad.
Carney is pivoting from what he regards as the previous government’s casual regard for economic expansion to policies meant to accelerate economic growth.
More vigorous trade with more trading partners will complement, not overshadow, an abundance of major projects in Canada.
The real action is not overseas but at the ports of Vancouver and Montreal, where massive infrastructure projects are underway to streamline these global gateways to get Canadian goods to world markets faster.
It’s along the 1,250-kilometre route of a proposed second pipeline to carry Athabasca crude to the B.C. coast and onward to global markets.
Along that coast, several new liquefied natural gas (LNG) plants are underway, some part-owned by Indigenous investor groups, and also meant to serve world markets.
The action is in Atlantic Canada at the $70-billion project in Quebec and Newfoundland and Labrador to build one of the world’s biggest hydroelectric projects.
There is the $50-billion-plus AI data centre under construction on the outskirts of Regina; the innovative small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs) Ontario is building at its Darlington nuclear power station; and the new critical minerals projects across Canada, including mines producing nickel, graphite and tungsten.
The new session of Parliament, which commenced Sept. 21, will consider a high-priority bill to expedite major projects that in the past have been held up or cancelled due to regulatory delays.
Canada is on the move. And opportunities in Europe, while not centre stage, are certainly part of that story.
There is no grand plan for greater Canada-EU integration. But there will be more LNG shipments to Europe to help ensure its energy security. Carney has called for increased Canada-EU collaboration on developing AI safety protocols.
Canada will likely contribute to the EU’s plan to stockpile critical minerals. And hoped-for Canadian participation in Europe’s renowned Erasmus+ student exchange program “will build lasting ties that will sustain our alliance for the future,” Carney told the European Parliament.
“Europe is rearming at historic speed,” notes Colin Robertson, a former Canadian career diplomat. “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the growing doubts across European capitals about long-term American reliability have transformed European strategic thinking.
“Nordic countries are strengthening defence in the High North while Brussels pours hundreds of billions into defence production, energy resilience and industrial policy.”
Canada’s opportunities in Europe, even as we rebuild our homeland, can be exaggerated. But they can also be overlooked, as evident from the many timid Canadian businesses that choose not to take advantage of free-trade agreements that Canada has provided them and instead keep selling to Illinois rather than Barcelona, Lyon or Munich.
“Carney has notably described Canada as “the most European of non-European countries,” Robertson notes. “He has also said many times that nostalgia is not a strategy, and this is not nostalgia. It is foresight. The opportunities are real.”
