Incumbent Olivia Chow leads Brad Bradford among decided voters in Toronto with just under a month before the municipal election, a new poll indicates.
The new poll by Canada Pulse Insights for CityNews shows that among those who have already made up their mind, Chow has 51 per cent of the vote compared to Bradford at 34 per cent, with Chris Alexander at nine per cent. Any other candidate outside the top three received six per cent support.
The poll also finds that the gap among all voters is tighter, with the incumbent garnering 38 per cent of the vote compared to Bradford’s 25 per cent and seven per cent for Alexander.
Another 20 per cent of those surveyed didn’t know who they would vote for, while four per cent would choose a different candidate and six per cent would not vote for any of them.
While a majority of those polled, 55 per cent, said it was time for change in Toronto, another 45 per cent said Chow deserved to be re-elected. Of the 55 per cent who want change, Bradford has 44 per cent support.
Among those who would support Chow, 90 per cent said she deserved to be re-elected while only six per cent of those supporting Bradford said she deserved a second term.
Pollster John Wright says what the poll reveals is that even though Chow has a sizeable lead, voters who might hand the reigns over to Brad Bradford or even Chris Alexander are not going to do that.
“I would suggest at this stage, even though we’ve got roughly four weeks to go in the campaign, that Mayor Chow will be elected to a second term. There’s just, I don’t think, enough anger against her, I don’t think there’s enough motivation to move her out of that position,” he tells CityNews.
Nearly 74 per cent of undecided voters said it was time for a change. Undecided voters who want change were more likely to be middle-aged, women, and live downtown. They’re also less likely to be married and white. Nearly four in 10 of them said they weren’t sure whether they would vote at all.
Meanwhile, 27 per cent of those who want change, or 15 per cent of all Torontonians, haven’t decided who they’re voting for.
“Brad Bradford captures most of the people who are wanting change, but that remaining group is not connecting with Bradford. They agree with his criticisms of City Hall, they agree with some of his issues, but for whatever reason – whether it be just the messenger – the reality is its different than the people who are voting for him,” says Wright.
“I think the undecided, a lot of them are going to stay home, they’re not going to show up, and those people who might show up are not necessarily going to vote for Brad Bradford or Chris Alexander.”
Wright adds that Alexander’s presence in the race is one of the major factors hindering Bradford’s campaign.
“It is probably the most disheartening thing for (the Bradford) campaign to have somebody who is taking seven to 10 points away from you. And we saw this earlier when John Tory left and Brad Bradford was neck and neck almost with the mayor, that’s changed with Chris Alexander going in there,” he says.
“This is what happens when one side of the ledger gets more people involved, it just splits the vote up but it also has a hamper on the motivation to get out and vote and that’s what is happening to that side.”
The municipal election is scheduled for Oct. 26 and voters will be receiving their voting cards in their mailbox in the coming days. Early voting for Toronto will take place from Tuesday Oct. 6 to Sunday Oct. 11.
This survey was conducted among 510 adult residents of the City of Toronto by Canada Pulse Insights between Sept. 14 and 24, 2026. The margin of error for a probability-based sample of this size is +/- 4.3 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
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