OTTAWA – Exports to the United States surged in August as Canadian businesses rushed to get ahead of looming U.S. tariffs.
Statistics Canada said Tuesday the country’s merchandise trade surplus increased to $4.2 billion in August, up from a surplus of $787 million in July. August marked the sixth monthly trade surplus in a row.
Total exports increased 2.5 per cent to total $77.9 billion for the month, helped by a 4.7 per cent rise in exports of energy products, the first increase for the category since April.
Excluding energy products, exports were up 1.8 per cent.
Meanwhile, total imports fell by two per cent in August to $73.7 billion, the first decline since January, as imports of motor vehicles and parts fell 8.8 per cent.
Exports to the United States rose 8.1 per cent in August, while imports dropped 2.5 per cent.
That drove a surge in Canada’s trade surplus with the United States — widening to $11.2 billion in August from $6.1 billion in the previous month.
“This is the largest positive monthly change ever observed in Canada’s trade balance with the United States,” StatCan said.
The agency suggested that threats of new Section 338 tariffs from the United States might have fuelled a rush in orders from U.S. businesses seeking to get ahead of higher duty payments.
Despite efforts to secure a deal that would avoid the tariffs, trade talks between Canada and the United States broke down at the 11th hour and a range of exports were hit with 50 per cent tariffs starting Aug. 22.
Katherine Judge, senior economist at CIBC, said in a note to clients that the spike in U.S. exports was thanks to firms front-running tariffs.
The increase is therefore probably temporary and will unwind come September, she said.
Canada’s counter-tariffs against the United States came into effect on Sept. 8, and will likely see a flood of imports in the early days of the month.
“Canada’s trade position is likely to deteriorate and exports will remain under pressure in Q4 unless a trade deal with the U.S. is reached,” Judge said.
The latest U.S. tariffs target roughly five per cent of Canada’s exports south of the border, at a value of around $28 billion. These tariffs do not include an exemption for compliance with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico agreement, unlike previous waves of U.S. duties.
RBC assistant chief economist Nathan Janzen said in a note that ongoing exemptions for other exports under CUSMA should keep economic damage contained.
“We continue to expect the new tariffs imposed by the U.S. administration will have a significant impact on directly targeted sectors but with more than 80 per cent of Canadian exports to the U.S. still maintaining duty-free access under CUSMA we expect limited spillover to the broader economy,” he said.
Canada’s efforts to diversify to non-U.S. export markets took a step back.
Exports to countries other than the United States fell 8.5 per cent in August, largely erasing an 8.2 per cent jump observed in July.
In volume terms, total exports rose 2.5 per cent in August, while import volumes fell 1.1 per cent.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 6, 2026.
