Toronto's new condo sales hit record low in September despite HST boost

The benchmark price for new single-family homes in the GTA was just over $1.25 million in September, down 13 per cent from a year earlier. The benchmark price for new condos was $1.03 million, unchanged year over year. (BILD said the prices are gross figures that do not account for the HST rebate, allowing comparisons with previous years on a like-for-like basis.)

“We’re continuing to see a move to the townhouse and semi categories, and so they’re increasing as a percentage of the overall sales,” said Justin Sherwood, chief operating officer of BILD. “The reason for that is that they can be priced very competitively.”

The figures point to a market recovering unevenly six months after governments introduced HST rebates on eligible new homes to stimulate purchases: single-family home sales have strengthened, while condo sales remain near historic lows and thousands of units sit unsold. BILD says the rebate has helped buyers of lowrise homes but that its eligibility rules make it harder for condo projects to qualify.

The GTA recorded 949 new-home sales in September, up 64 per cent from a year earlier but still 52 per cent below the 10-year average.

There were 820 new single-family home sales in the GTA in September, more than double the number recorded the year prior and 17 per cent above the 10-year average. These homes, which Altus now refers to as the lowrise sector, include detached, linked and semi-detached houses and townhouses but exclude stacked townhouses.

More than half of September’s single-family home sales were semi-detached homes and townhouses, representing a shift from traditional levels.

“You’re starting to see a different product mix at a more competitive price,” Sherwood said, adding the HST rebate as well as lower land and labour costs are contributing to price changes. “It really is a readjustment of the market that is occurring in real time.”

The September sales brought total single-family home sales for the first nine months of 2026 to 6,606 — more than double the number the same period last year and above the 10-year average of 6,001.

“Elevated sales continued to be driven by the lowrise sector, which has outpaced the 10-year average (in) each of the six months since the (HST rebate) program’s inception,” said Edward Jegg, a research manager at Altus Group.

The picture was starkly different for new condos, which Altus now refers to as the highrise sector and includes units in low-, mid- and highrise buildings, as well as stacked townhouses.

In September, 129 new condos sold, down from 216 a year earlier and 90 per cent below the 10-year average. Year-to-date new condo sales reached 2,284, up more than 45 per cent compared to the same period in 2025 but about 80 per cent below the 10-year average.

Jegg said the highrise market “remained plagued by undesirable inventory and program constraints centred on unattainable construction timelines.”

Sherwood said the rebate’s deadlines make it difficult for condo developers to bring projects to market in time to qualify. Adjusting those timelines could allow new projects to proceed with more competitive pricing, he said.

The GTA had 19,957 new homes remaining for sale at the end of September, including 12,909 condos — equivalent to approximately 49 months of sales, based on the average sales pace — while there were 7,048 single-family homes, representing about 11 months of sales. In a healthy market, the inventory would take around nine to 12 months to sell.

The new condos figure includes 2,664 units in completed buildings, 6,165 units in projects under construction and 4,080 units in pre-construction projects.