A majority of Albertans have voted in favour of having more say in immigration and restricting access to health care, education and social services for non-permanent residents in the province.
All four immigration-related questions on the ballot garnered more than 50 per cent of the “Yes” votes in Monday’s referendum dealing with potential Albertan independence and immigration and constitutional reform. But experts say the results, while politically charged, tell a more nuanced story about how the province views newcomers, and may change very little in practice.
As of late Tuesday afternoon, Elections Alberta’s website showed:
• Fifty-four per cent supported Alberta to take more control over immigration “for the purposes of decreasing immigration to more sustainable levels, prioritizing economic migration and giving Albertans first priority on new employment opportunities”;
• Fifty-four per cent said only citizens, permanent residents and “individuals with an Alberta approved immigration status” should be eligible for provincially funded programs such as health care, education and social services;
• Fifty-eight per cent were in favour a residency requirement of at least 12 months before temporary residents with legal status qualify for any provincially funded social support programs;
• Fifty-seven per cent supported imposing a fee or premium for temporary residents and their families to access health and education.
What will these results mean?
Is this a victory or a defeat for immigrants?
These margins were lower than what had been projected in earlier public polls, especially given Premier Danielle Smith’s campaign to rally for the mandate for change, said Avnish Nanda, a co-founder of Our Alberta Advantage. The group opposes the Alberta government’s immigration-related referendum questions and policies.
“She sent every Albertan home like a large pamphlet that contained (what) I think were false statements but made the case about why they should vote yes,” said Nanda, who is also an immigration lawyer in Edmonton.
“She won by (a handful of points) on these questions. She should be winning by 25, 30 points. She barely won this. A large portion of Albertans rejected it.”
Raj Sharma, a Calgary-based immigration lawyer, also sees the result as a “victory” because he said the way the immigration questions were structured and written would lead many respondents to say yes.
“These were slam-dunk-level questions,” he said. “They didn’t get that. It gives me great joy, great optimism that Alberta has been very decisive. At the end of the day, it looks like Albertans are quite reasonable, committed to the Canadian fabric, committed to working with their neighbours, whether newcomers or old, to a future together.”
Can Alberta actually curtail its immigration?
The referendum asked for more control over immigration but Sharma said the question was “disingenuous,” because immigration is exclusively within the jurisdiction of the federal government. Not too long ago, the premier was asking to double the targets of Alberta’s provincial immigration nomination program and was warm to the idea of increased pathways for Ukrainians, he added.
While Smith may hope to wrest as much control over how many people, and who, are let into Alberta as Quebec does in setting its intakes, Sharma said the conditions and circumstances are so different between the two provinces.
“I’ll call it a febrile fever dream that Alberta can get the same position within the constitutional framework as Quebec,” he said. “If you want sovereignty, you need to define and have a culture … oil and gas is not enough for a culture. The starting point for sovereignty would be to define the culture. Alberta is not the same as Quebec. We don’t have this separate language.”
What will change for temporary residents in Alberta?
University of Alberta political science professor Yasmeen Abu-Laban said the immigration referendum questions were redundant given that Ottawa has already been prioritizing economic immigration and introduced measures to reduce newcomer admissions.
Although the referendum results have clearer implications for people who are in the province on work or study permits around access to health care and social supports, she stressed that nothing has immediately changed.
“In many ways, this referendum was the response of the (United Conservative Party) government and of the premier to a base” and a constituency within the UCP, said Abu-Laban.
“There’s a constituency of people that were very supportive of the idea of Alberta separation,” which also “tends to support more populist ideas, and has been critical to immigration.”
Calgary immigration lawyer Jatin Shory said health care, education and social services are run by provinces and Smith’s majority government does not need a mandate to change program eligibility. The UCP is going to have a convention in November, and he believes members would likely review the referendum results and the party’s own objectives going into next year’s provincial election.
“What we’re probably going to see is those who are motivated to push these conversations forward are going to have a heavy presence,” said Sharma.
How might this affect immigrants’ perceptions of Alberta?
Mandeep Lidher, an immigration consultant in Calgary, noted the results are not binding, but the fact that the immigration questions were on the ballot sends a message to prospective newcomers. He has had clients asking him about where Alberta’s immigration is headed.
“It definitely makes Alberta look less immigrant-friendly,” said Lidher. “It makes people anxious and question whether they want to move to Alberta, if they want to study and work in Alberta, and whether it’s worth pursuing.”
