The Democrats’ return to power in Congress is welcome news for Canadians who have long yearned for a check on U.S. President Donald Trump’s power.
And while Trump maintains his executive powers to impose tariffs on Canada — even in the face of Tuesday’s historic blowback by voters in the midterm elections — the sea change in Congress does give his opponents more tools to exert pressure for change, from launching investigations to wielding greater influence over federal spending, said Canadian and U.S. trade experts.
“Trump’s own sense usually is to add more tariffs and more pressure,” veteran international trade lawyer Barry Appleton said. “Now, with a change in Congress, he’s probably got more reason to put more negotiation time and less pressure time.”
But Appleton cautioned that while Congress may have changed hands, the White House hasn’t, and Canadians shouldn’t get their hopes up.
What could the new Congress do?
By Wednesday morning, Democrats had gained seven seats in the Senate, leading Republicans 54 to 44, and held 234 seats in the House to the Republicans’ 139.
A Democratic-led Congress at both the House and Senate could throw up more roadblocks for Trump when he tries to pass legislation, including bills to fund the government, said Tim Meyer, a law professor at Duke University.
The president will need Democratic support to legislate bills, potentially opening the door to compromise on issues such as trade. Trump may face investigations and impeachment, though the latter will be unlikely because it requires two-thirds of the Senate to convict, he said.
“But tariffs have been a signature policy of this president, and so it’s hard to imagine that he’s going to agree to simply abandon tariffs completely, as part of those negotiations,” Meyer said.
Appleton also said the Democrats’ control over federal spending could give them considerable leverage if they choose to use it, and Canada’s trade concerns could become part of negotiations. But they would be just one of many issues on the table, he said.
“The president could change his approach to Congress, and he could offer them other things,” Appleton said. “Maybe Congress will be interested instead in the Iran war rather than in the tariffs.”
Kathleen Claussen, a law professor at Georgetown University, said the House and Senate could launch investigations into Trump’s trade policies, subpoena officials, and demand extensive documents from the administration.
Such investigations could tie up government staff, diverting time and resources away from imposing further tariffs while ramping up political pressure on Trump, she said, though it’s unclear how much they could slow his trade agenda.
“It’s unlikely to see a massive change,” said Claussen.
Why a democratic majority can’t block Trump’s tariffs
A change in Congress won’t immediately affect the trade war, Appleton said.
Trump has been able to impose tariffs on Canada through executive powers handed to the president by Congress decades ago, meaning he doesn’t need lawmakers to vote on or approve orders, he said.
“The president still has this discretionary authority,” Appleton said. “He didn’t go to Congress to make these tariffs.”
Congress could try to rein in Trump by changing existing laws or passing new ones. But such legislation could face his veto, and overriding any veto would take a two-thirds majority in both the House and Senate.
Trump said Sunday he would become “Mr. Veto” if Republicans lost control of Congress. On Tuesday night, he posted a photo on Truth Social of a red baseball cap emblazoned with “VETO” in white capital letters.
A two-thirds majority in both chambers required to defeat a presidential veto — 67 votes in the Senate and 290 in the House — means Democrats would need significant Republican support, which is just not possible, Appleton said.
The best time to get a deal has passed
The new Congress won’t take office until Jan. 3, two days after U.S. tariffs on Canadian cars, trucks, auto parts and steel are scheduled to rise to 50 per cent.
With the midterm results now largely settled and several states along the Canadian border flipping to Democrats, the incentive for Trump to strike a deal with Canada before Jan. 1 may also be gone, Appleton said.
“However, there is a reason now that the president has a massive rejection of his policies from the American people,” he said. “The question is: Is President Trump going to be very self-reflective?”
Andreas Schotter, an international business professor at Ivey Business School, said Canadian businesses shouldn’t pin their hopes on American politics to solve their problems.
Instead, he urged them to keep building resilience, explore new markets, and strengthen business ties within Canada.
Law professor Meyer said he expects Trump to take an even more confrontational approach toward Canada after the election, potentially tightening North American rules of origin to push more manufacturing back to the U.S.
“He views tariffs as his signature initiative,” Meyer said. “I would expect that he will want to extract concessions from Canada before he leaves office.”
