Carney government officials don't expect big change to trade talks after dramatic U.S. elections

Premier Doug Ford said the rejection of Trump’s trade agenda gives Canada ”a little more leverage,” and Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe said the results reflected “in part” the impact of harmful tariffs, and offered “an opportunity to reset our relationship with the U.S. and restore free and fair trade.”

LeBlanc refused to go that far.

“The prime minister and president have agreed to work over the course of the next weeks to reach a deal that is in the interest of both countries,” LeBlanc said, but he twice emphasized that, “we’re not there yet.”

That’s despite Trump’s claims prior to the vote that the two sides were “close” and Canada was “willing to give us anything at this moment.”

LeBlanc expects to talk with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and U.S. Trade Rep. Jamieson Greer in the coming days but said it isn’t “constructive” to speculate on the upshot of the Democrats’ victories.

However, the Canadian mood Tuesday night, as David MacNaughton, the former Canadian ambassador to Washington, watched the vote result roll in with current Ambassador Mark Wiseman, was “pretty good,” said MacNaughton.

The “decisive” election results are “good news for American democracy,” MacNaughton said, and present “an opportunity” for Canada’s team to see if a negotiated settlement can be reached, but that will only happen if Trump still has the ability to claim “some wins.”

MacNaughton was key to Canada’s renegotiation of the North American free trade deal or NAFTA in Trump’s first presidential term. It led to the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement, or CUSMA — the deal that Prime Minister Mark Carney says Trump has violated with the range of tariffs against Canada. Trump is threatening even steeper tariffs of another 50 per cent on all Canadian cars, trucks and automotive parts from Canada as of Jan. 1 after Canada suspended talks in August over what Carney called a bad deal.

MacNaughton said Trump “in his heart of hearts is a deal guy” and there may be movement in the weeks ahead, “but I just don’t think there’s a deal to be done if we can’t get some relief on autos and steel and aluminum.” 

The Canadian team has to find a way to “substantially reduce the tariffs” and find a mechanism that ensures any executive orders in the future “are either temporary, or time limited or need to go through Congress,” said MacNaughton.

Yet he and others warned Canadians should not believe the U.S. has rejected isolationism and protectionism. “We’re not going to go back to the good old days of free trade and multilateralism,” he said. “That’s not going to happen.”

Carney said Tuesday in Antigua the two sides have made progress on some of Canada’s “red lines” such as French-language protection, culture, and “sovereignty” with Carney pointing to Canada’s “ability to have trade deals.”

What progress has been made is because, Carney said, “they’re asking less and they’re offering more, but we’re not quite there.”

Flavio Volpe, head of the Auto Parts Manufacturing Association, said voters in U.S states where the automotive sector is “the biggest industrial sector” — he cited states such as Michigan, Ohio and Georgia — retained or elected Democrats, and ousted Republicans in senate and gubernatorial seats. Voters connected “affordability with the tariffs the Americans are charging themselves,” he said, and those Democrat lawmakers will now be more vocal allies for Canada and for the American carmaker CEOs who hesitated to publicly criticize Trump, Volpe said. 

”I’m under no illusion that they’re not protectionists,” said Volpe. But he said there will now be horse-trading between the Democrats and Republicans over tariffs, and Trump is “no longer pushing open doors.”

Jean Simard, head of the Aluminum Association of Canada, added Pennsylvania to the list of manufacturing states where the Democrats saw gains, saying overall, the U.S. results sent “a highly powerful, very clear message from voters about their total rejection of some elements of the White House agenda, and part of that is tariffs” along with immigration and other concerns.

Simard flagged that Trump remains in “relative control” before the newcomers are sworn in but ”this should empower Republicans who basically were against (tariffs) but afraid of coming out, to now be far more voiceful in the coming weeks and months.”

Time is on Canada’s side, he said. 

“Canada has no reason today any more than before to rush into a bad deal. We can stay the course. And the question is, do we think that we can get to a better landing zone months down the road.”

Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne, who will present a federal budget Thursday, dodged questions about how the U.S. midterm election might influence Canada’s position at trade talks.

“It’s about us, it’s not really about them,” Champagne said. “A strong Canada is a better Canada at any negotiating table.”

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre criticized Carney for failing so far to get a tariff-free deal — with zero tariffs. He said the U.S. vote results demonstrate that “Americans hate tariffs. A tariff on Canada is a tax on Americans,” he said, and Carney failed to “leverage our single biggest asset in these talks and that is the goodwill of the American people.”

Poilievre claimed without offering any evidence that Carney is deliberately dragging his feet on reaching an agreement because he holds investments in the U.S. and “he profits off of all of that.”

Carney has repeatedly said all his private investments and holdings are in a blind trust, a move he made before becoming prime minister after he won the Liberal leadership race in March 2025.