The clock is ticking on a potential Air Canada pilots strike that would wreak havoc on air travel, and at least one aviation expert is betting it will happen — and that Ottawa would be unlikely to step in with back-to-work legislation.
“Is the government likely to get involved? My answer to that is probably not,” said John Gradek, faculty lecturer in Aviation Management at McGill University. “The government will stand back and let (the) … process take its course.
“This is not a national emergency. This is not an essential service. It will be inconvenient for passengers … There is enough (airline) capacity out there to complement whatever loss of capacity Air Canada would be suffering as a result of this strike.”
On Aug. 22, Air Canada pilots voted 98 per cent in favour of a strike if a deal is not reached with the airline by the Sept. 17 deadline.
Whether the 5,400 pilots walk out will depend a lot on whether the company is willing to risk a shut down, said Barry Prentice, director of the Transport Institute at the Asper School of Business at the University of Manitoba. Now that the airline is entering the slower fall travel season, Prentice says they might be willing to risk a strike.
The government, however, has a track record of legislating pilots back to work, said Prentice, noting Stephen Harper’s conservative government legislated pilots back to work in 2012.
This time, Prentice said he suspects the government would “only intervene if it absolutely has to.”
Air Canada spokesperson Peter Fitzpatrick said in an email that there is “still sufficient time to reach an agreement and it is our intent to finalize a negotiated agreement with ALPA over the coming weeks.”
The union needs to provide 72 hours’ notice of its intention to strike, which means that the earliest date of disruption is Sept. 18.
He pointed to an Aug. 27 statement, which reads that there has been “significant progress” during the cooling off period and that Air Canada is “fully committed to bargaining meaningfully.”
Whatever the outcome, the union would prefer that the government stay out of it, said Charlene Hudy, union leader for the Air Canada pilots. The union, she said, is after “respectable” retirement benefits and better wages.
The Air Canada pilots are seeking to “modernize” their collective agreement, Hudy said in an Aug. 22 statement.
“Most of the pilots that I represent at Air Canada, we’re making half what our industry counterparts are making,” said Hudy. “So we really need Air Canada to take a look at that seriously and start closing the gap on these issues at the negotiation table.”
Negotiations for a new agreement began in June 2023. The talks entered private mediation from January to June 2024, but the two sides were unable to settle.
Hudy added that the pilots are “committed to avoiding a strike and the flight disruptions that would follow.”
Air Canada said in an Aug. 30 press release that its operations had not yet been affected and that its flights were operating as scheduled. However, the airline instituted a new policy: customers with tickets for travel between Sept. 15 and Sept. 23 will be able to change their flights for free. “Rest assured that we will notify you of any impact to your flight itinerary in advance of your travel,” the press release reads.
“Flexible booking policy is to give customers certainty about their travel plans as we know this is important to them,” said Fitzpatrick.
“We are watching these negotiations very closely as we get ready for our own negotiations at the end of 2024,” said Wesley Lesosky, president of the Air Canada unit of CUPE, which represents 10,000 flight attendants at Air Canada and Air Canada Rouge, in a Sept. 3 email.
“Many Air Canada flight attendants are relying on food banks and earning less than minimum wage due to the amount of mandatory unpaid work they perform for the company,” said Lesosky. “The pilots have our full support because we understand we will all move forward together.”
