All signs were that Ontario Premier Doug Ford was set to call an early election in 2025, a year ahead of schedule. But federal NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh’s decision to “rip up” the supply and confidence agreement with the governing Liberals has likely thrown a wrench into those plans.
The prevailing thought among Ford’s inner circle was to send Ontario voters to the polls early ahead of a possible federal election to get out in front of a potential federal Conservative government – one that could potentially introduce an austere budget just before the scheduled provincial vote in the spring of 2026.
Now that’s all changed, according to Jamie Ellerton with public relations and communications firm Conaptus Ltd.
“I do think it adds a different element of risk to it that wasn’t foreseen as recently as six months ago,” he tells 680 NewsRadio Toronto.
“I think there’s going to be greater instability federally and I think the contrast between Doug Ford and Pierre Poilievre, especially with centre-right voters, is growing increasingly apparent in terms of who is a Conservative and who is just governing. I think this aspect of it is an understated risk to the go early strategy when the whole premise of it was to get out in front of it in their favour.”
Ellerton says if Ford does wait until 2026 he may still have one thing working in his favour – a not-so-hot opposition.
“The Ontario Liberals are in total disarray and are showing no real signs of growth [and] the NDP continues to stagnate where they are,” he says.
A recent Abacus Data survey done at the end of August found the Ford Conservatives with 42 per cent support among Ontarians with the Liberals at 26 per cent, the NDP at 21 per cent and the Green Party at eight per cent.
