Coffee drinkers could soon be forced to shell out more for their morning cup.
Over the last four years, the price of an average bag of coffee, roasted or ground, has risen nearly 25 per cent, according to Statistics Canada.
Today, a pound of Arabica coffee, the most common type of bean, will cost you roughly $2.60 (U.S.) per pound, an increase of more than 40 per cent since last September. The price of Robusta beans has also more than doubled in the last year.
While the cost of coffee has been slowly creeping up for years, experts say recent extreme weather in two of the world’s largest producers, Brazil and Vietnam, has jeopardized future crops and pushed prices higher.
What is fuelling the skyrocketing costs?
Among a litany of factors impacting the global production of coffee, climate change and extreme weather are primary culprits, said Michael von Massow, a professor at the University of Guelph’s Department of Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics.
“Coffee is a little bit like the canary in the coal mine when it comes to climate change — it’s very, very susceptible to small changes in growing conditions,” said von Massow.
When the world’s largest coffee producers can no longer reliably predict growing conditions, production and quality also become inconsistent. In the case of Brazil, where 40 per cent of the world’s Arabica beans are produced, a historic drought has contributed to supply shortages and in turn, the cost of beans.
Beyond climate events, rising fuel costs, transportation and labour costs are also contributing to higher coffee prices and, as demand increases, so will the price of your daily mug of joe.
When will the price increase trickle down to your morning cup?
For the most part, individual consumers have avoided the brunt of climatic changes in coffee-producing countries, said von Massow.
According to data released this spring by technology company Square, the average price of a cup of coffee increased by just under 2 per cent between 2022 and 2023, running Canadians an average of $2.95 a cup. Still, the rate of increase has remained below that of inflation.
In the coming months, however, von Massow said he expects some of the recent extreme weather in coffee-producing countries will force the hands of coffee shop and café owners to up their prices.
“What we see in the next growing season will affect what happens going forward, but I would expect that we’ll probably see some impacts of these droughts in prices this fall and through the winter,” said von Massow.
Roasters and coffee shop owners, on the other hand, are already navigating the increased pressures.
Chris Johnston, a coffee roaster in St. Jacobs, Ont., said the company he works for had to raise their prices just over a year ago to keep up with inflating costs.
“When I first started working for the business, beans were probably around $2.75 to $3 per pound and now we’re almost at $4 per pound.”
Could opting for lesser-quality beans save you money?
Changes in weather have not only seen a decrease in the size of coffee farmers’ yields, but have made higher quality beans harder to produce, said Johnston. In turn, he said some roasters are reaching for the lesser quality strains when sourcing raw beans.
Johnston said he’s been experimenting more with roasting Robusta beans, which are more naturally resilient to weather conditions. Historically, Robusta has been deemed too low of quality to be sourced for single-origin coffee and is instead most often used to make instant coffee or to produce coffee blends.
“They are a cheaper and more low quality bean,” Johnston said. “But, if something’s happening to Arabica in the next 20 years and all we have is Robusta, then I think we have to start getting used to it.”
Is it time to start making your coffee at home?
While it may feel intuitive to save a buck by making your next cup at home, the biggest price increases will be found on grocery store shelves, according to industry experts.
“This is because the price of a cup of coffee includes the price of making that coffee. It includes the price of rent and the labour that that place pays,” von Massow said.
Coffee shops may also opt to absorb the price increases to continue bringing customers in, he added.
“If the prices of coffee go up, we don’t go in — they don’t sell breakfasts or doughnuts as much — and so they might eat a little bit of the price increase.”
What can we do to keep costs down?
Canada doesn’t have the climate to reliably grow and produce our own coffee, meaning there isn’t much Canadians can do to keep costs down. Still, von Massow said consumers can keep their costs low by exercising flexibility when shopping for beans.
“Overall when supply goes down, prices go up, but some may go up more than others — because of where they’re grown, their quality, those sorts of things — and so, if we’re flexible as consumers, we can maybe buffer ourselves from those price increases.”
How can you support the industry?
If you’re able, pay the increased price, said Johnston.
Shopping for products that are certified by organizations such as the Rainforest Alliance, which works to protect forests, improve the livelihoods of coffee farmers and help them navigate climatic changes, can also help support the health of the industry.
“If you can’t afford it, you can’t afford it, but the question is: am I willing to support the industry if I want to keep enjoying coffee?”
With files from The Canadian Press and Ghada Alsharif.
