U.S. president-elect Donald Trump’s plans for the world are blunt and clear — up to a point:
No new live or proxy conflicts for an isolationist leader who wants to put America first.
“I’m going to stop wars,” he said in his victory speech.
But Trump hasn’t yet laid out how he intends to follow through on this pledge. That has leaders across several continents now trying to chart the potential road map and gauge the consequences of his peace edict.
There have been no reports of overtures yet between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, but a new Russian ambassador to Washington is being readied for a potential diplomatic re-engagement — this with Trump’s pledge to negotiate an end to the two-and-a-half-year war in Ukraine.
“I think he’s going to make a phone call to Putin as quickly as possible and tell Putin that he needs to stop the war … and that there has to be peace,” former U.S. ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker told the Kyiv Independent, adding that there would likely be some tough negotiations on the way to a deal.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is meeting this week with European leaders in Budapest to discuss alternative plans for his country’s defence if Trump decides to cut off U.S. military aid and funding.
In a speech Thursday, Zelenskyy scolded those who propose offering concessions to Russia in hope of achieving peace.
“This is unacceptable for Ukraine and suicidal for all of Europe,” he warned.
“There should be no illusions that you can buy a just peace by showing weakness.”
Reports suggest Trump is already considering several drafts of a plan to freeze that war. Any such plan would likely be met with objections of Ukraine, which fears it will be forced to give up occupied territory to Russia. Ukraine has been (and remains) reliant on American military aid, a large batch of which could still come in the final weeks of President Joe Biden’s administration.
But there are wider concerns across the continent that Putin will only be further emboldened, knowing that Trump has no interest in sticking up for far-flung nations under military threat.
“Putin’s crusade isn’t targeting the Donbas, but Europe,” Raphaël Glucksmann, a French member of the European Parliament, wrote on social media after Trump’s victory.
Glucksmann called on European leaders to increase defence planning and the production of military equipment and weapons to defend not only Ukraine, but also their own countries.
“If everything continues like before and if the ostriches don’t get their head out of the sand, our current leaders will go down in history as the gravediggers of European security and stability.”
In the Middle East, some see Trump’s victory as an opportunity to reach a ceasefire in Gaza. Others fear it will be a green light for Israel to ramp up its military operations there, using overwhelming force to bring about peace.
Certainly, the Arab Americans who voted for Trump are hopeful he can intervene with Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu to end the fighting in Gaza, where more than 40,000 people have reportedly been killed, and in Lebanon, where more than 3,000 people have reportedly died.
Trump has reportedly told Netanyahu to end Israel’s campaign against Hamas in Gaza by the time he is sworn in as president in January. There have been few further details beyond the report of a post-victory telephone call between the two leaders, in which they “agreed to work together for Israel’s security, and also discussed the Iranian threat.”
But some observers predict that Trump will not stand up to or scold the Israeli leadership over allegations of human rights abuses or the blocking of humanitarian aid.
Trump does appear to have some a plan to negotiate peace, though. As he did during his first term as president, he’s drawing on family connections.
It was his son-in-law Jared Kushner who helped negotiate bilateral peace agreements between Israel and Morocco, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates in the fall of 2020 — pacts known as the Abraham Accords.
This time, he has tapped his daughter Tiffany’s father-in-law, Lebanese-American Massad Boulos, to help broker peace in the region as a sort of presidential envoy for Lebanon.
Boulos, a businessman, played a critical role selling Trump as a candidate to Arab and Muslim Americans in the state of Michigan, referring to him in interviews as “a man of peace.”
Under Trump, Boulos told Lebanese broadcaster Al-Jadeed this week, “I will be responsible for negotiating with the Lebanese side in order to reach an agreement, and Trump will appoint someone familiar with the Israeli file to negotiate with the Israelis.”
Another region bracing for the effects of a second Trump administration is Asia, where China remains locked in a decades-long standoff with Taiwan, which it considers to be an illegitimate breakaway region.
While there is no open conflict underway, China conducts frequent war games as a show of force, and Taiwanese leaders have likened their situation living in the shadow of a larger, stronger power — and compared their likely future to that of Ukraine.
While many of Trump’s economic and foreign policies appear designed to counter the rising strength and threats to the United States from China, the enemy of America’s enemy — Taiwan — is not automatically viewed as a friend.
Speaking in the final days of the campaign, Trump told podcaster Joe Rogan that Taiwan “stole” the American production of semiconductors but is at the same time seeking American protection from Chinese aggression and a potential invasion.
“They don’t pay us money for the protection, you know?” Trump said. “The mob makes you pay money, right?”
The Council on Foreign Relations, a U.S. foreign policy think tank, expects Trump to pressure Taiwan’s leaders to drastically increase defence spending.
