An Association of Municipalities of Ontario report says chronic homelessness could be eliminated an extra $1.1 billion per year.
Would you be willing to pay for your vehicle’s licence-plate sticker again — a $120 annual expense for most car- and truck-owners that Premier Doug Ford’s government did away with in 2022 — if it would end chronic homelessness in the province? In that context, it doesn’t seem like such a huge sacrifice.
Because the $1.1 billion in yearly sticker fees that the premier forfeited, coincidentally, is the annual price tag that a recent report says would be needed above current spending to end Ontario’s chronic homelessness over the next 10 years.
Otherwise, according to the report put out by the Association of Municipalities of Ontario, the ranks of province’s unhoused population could explode from its current level of about 81,500 to more than 290,000 by 2035, an increase of 260 per cent.
“Sometimes you need to be hit over the head with a two-by-four to get your attention,” says River Ward Coun. Riley Brockington, who serves on AMO’s board of directors and executive council.
This report, he says, is that hard-hitting piece of lumber.
It’s worth noting that the more-than-tripling of Ontario’s homeless rolls assumes an economic downturn marked by higher unemployment and declining incomes and housing affordability. Yet, if figures trend at the current rates, chronic homelessness in the province is expected to double its toll by 2035 to 165,915 people.
The report, titled Municipalities Under Pressure: The Human and Financial Cost of Ontario’s Homelessness Crisis, marks the first time that data from each of the province’s 47 municipal services managers has been aggregated and analyzed. Some of its findings are alarming. The number of people experiencing “known” homelessness, for example — those known to the homelessness-serving system and largely including those in emergency shelters, hotels, or unsheltered locations such as in tents or outdoor spaces — has gone up by 25 per cent since 2022 alone.
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The incidence of chronic homelessness, in which people experience prolonged or repeated periods of homelessness, has risen dramatically, too, tripling in less than a decade. For the first time, chronic homelessness now accounts for more than half the cases of known homelessness, rising from 22 per cent in 2016 to 51 per cent.
Children and youths, meanwhile, account for almost 25 per cent of those experiencing chronic homelessness.
“Child homelessness equals family homelessness,” says Kaite Burkholder Harris, executive director of the Alliance to End Homelessness Ottawa. “And we know that that number is growing significantly in Ottawa, certainly, and all across the province.”
At the same time, rural homelessness is growing at a faster rate than urban homelessness. After remaining largely unchanged from 2016 to 2021, the number of rural residents experiencing known homelessness rose from 1,858 in 2021 to 4,245 in 2024, an increase of more than 125 per cent.
The report outlines a pair of scenarios to help address homelessness. The first looks at what it would cost to reach “functional zero homelessness,” meaning that instances of homelessness are rare, brief and non-recurring.
That scenario calls for an additional $11 billion in spending over 10 years above the current figure the three levels of government put towards housing and homelessness programs — about $4.1 billion in 2024. The majority of that extra money would be put towards capital expenses, especially building subsidized housing.
The report’s second scenario aims to address the challenge of encampments with a $2-billion investment that would stabilize housing and provide wraparound services for about 8,400 people, or just over 10 per cent of the known homeless population.
To be sure, these are large numbers, but not so enormous when you look at the province’s overall budget of $214.5 billion and the feds’ roughly half-trillion. Then consider what savings might be found in healthcare, policing and incarceration costs if most people had homes.
Burkholder Harris wants both scenarios acted upon, but notes that getting people out of the cold is the most immediate need. “People will die. People have died. They are going to die. It’s essential, and I think people forget we can actually truly eliminate outdoor homelessness for the most part within two to four years.”
But cities can’t end homelessness on their own.
“This report,” Brockington says, “underscores that to expect municipalities to address, finance and solve this crisis is completely unrealistic. It needs a provincial quarterback to acknowledge the depth and scope of the problem across the province.”
That takes will, and the premier’s announcement in December that the province will introduce legislation making it easier for municipalities and police to dismantle homeless encampments isn’t encouraging. Eviction doesn’t address the problem.
If Ford wants his political legacy to be little more than eliminating vehicle stickers and getting beer in convenience stores, he’s all set. But, if he wants to be remembered for actually lifting up people who are experiencing the greatest need, he should pay attention and act.
