Donald Trump’s inauguration for a second term was the topic of a panel assembled by the Ottawa Board of Trade for its annual Business Outlook meeting.
What does the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency mean for Canada?
It was the question on everyone’s mind the day after Trump’s inauguration for a second term and it was the topic of an expert panel assembled by the Ottawa Board of Trade for its annual Business Outlook meeting held Tuesday at Rogers Centre Ottawa.
The experts included: Allison Gifford, vice-president of policy and public affairs with the consultant group Clear Strategy; Dawn Desjardins, chief economist with Deloitte Canada; and Catherine Fortin LeFaivre, vice-president, international policy & global partnership for the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.
These are some highlights of their discussion, lightly edited for clarity.
Allison Gifford:
“From a political perspective, what’s different this time is the level of preparation we’ve had.
“The first time around we had a bit of a Camelot moment with (newly elected) Prime Minister (Justin) Trudeau. There was a lot of unity, a lot of coming together as a team. I didn’t see that this time. I saw a lot of politicians going individually on U.S. networks. We had a lot of our grievances aired, our national unity grievances aired, in front of the U.S. government. A U.S. diplomat said to me yesterday, ‘Can you imagine if a governor in the U.S. was going out and speaking on behalf of the president?’ I had to say, ‘No.’ When you put it in that context, (Ontario Premier Doug) Ford does look a little strange being there.
“I don’t think that was the best way to go into this. I think we showed a lot of vulnerability that we’re going to have to make up for now. I’m generally hopeful that that is happening. I think every day we’re taking it a little more seriously and getting our game faces on.”
Catherine Fortin LeFaivre:
Evening Update
“Let’s be honest. This is game-changing. A 25-per-cent tariff? This has not been put in place officially yet, but we have every reason to believe that it likely will be. It is creating a lot of uncertainty. At the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, we’re getting tons of questions on the impact, and, truthfully, we don’t know how it will manifest itself. Nobody knows. If there’s one thing we know from engaging with our U.S. counterparts, it’s that anyone who tells you what Trump is going to do is a fool. Nobody knows except him.
“Just yesterday we were fielding a lot of media calls asking for a reaction to the fact that tariffs on Canada weren’t mentioned during his inauguration speech, which we were very pleased to see. I did my last interview at 4:30 and the reporter said, ‘Isn’t this positive? Are you happy there are no tariffs?’ And I said, ‘The day is not over yet.’ Sure enough, that evening, off the cuff … President Trump mentioned he will likely be instituting those 25-per-cent tariffs across the board against Canada on Feb. 1.
“If there’s one message that we’re learning, it’s things are changing quickly. Nobody know what’s going to happen. We don’t know. Our government doesn’t know. But we’re preparing as best we can. And part of that preparation is telling the story of the importance of that relationship. For most Canadians, it’s a fundamental understanding, especially among business people, why it’s so important to be working with our U.S. counterparts. It’s a lot less so for our American friends.
“When we go across the U.S., we are shocked by how some very sophisticated people are not aware of how much Canada plays a big part in their economy. ”
Fortin LeFaivre said the chamber of commerce’s Business Data Lab modelled the impact of a 25-per-cent tariff and found it would cost the average Canadian $1,900 a year and the average American $1,000 U.S.
“When we hear Trump supporters talking about why they voted for him, a lot of them will mention that it’s about getting prices back to where so they can afford groceries again. Wow! This will not do that. It will be inflationary. That is part of our arsenal: We are much better working together. If we want to grow the economy, we should be collaborating, not fighting each other.”
Dawn Desjardins
“The reason we have a trade surplus is because we send energy — oil — to the United States and we account for 58 per cent of the total American imports. That is not an insignificant amount. So how can we convince people? When we look at all the rest of it, we actually have a trade deficit with the United States. So it’s one rather huge portion of our trade imbalance with the United States.
“Obviously it will mean big problems for the border states. For some of them — I think 20 states — Canada is their largest trading partner. How is it going to affect them if we retaliate with tariffs? It is very very complicated and I’m not exactly sure how we can convince President Trump that this is really damaging, but I think, as my colleagues have said, that it’s talking to the people who can convince him. And I’m not sure who those people are.”
