For Canadian clean-energy advocates, the sight of U.S. President Donald Trump rescinding many of his predecessor’s clean-energy initiatives on his first day in office on Jan. 20 was discouraging, but not alarming.
The global clean-energy transition has gained too much momentum for anyone to stop it. And its progress is especially evident in Canada.
The past 12 months have seen new clean-energy projects announced or going onstream in almost every province.
The projects include the first electricity generated by the $16 billion Site C hydro-electric dam on B.C.’s Peace River and completion in November of the refurbishment of a reactor at Ontario’s Darlington nuclear station, extending its life by 30 years.
In a global survey of corporate CEOs released in January, consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) found that 72 per cent of Canadian CEOs said they had made climate-related investments in their businesses in the past 12 months.
And in the U.S., about 90 per cent of increased capacity at American power utilities in the first half of 2024 came from renewable sources, including solar (59 per cent of the total) and wind (12 per cent).
Solar and wind installations are cost competitive with fossil fuels and often cheaper as the technology improves. And so, global investment in clean energy amounted to about $2.9 trillion last year, almost twice the investment in fossil fuels.
“This limits the degree to which the (Trump) administration can mount a more significant role for fossil fuels in the domestic energy system,” says economist Francis Fong of TD Economics.
Severe weather events caused or made worse by climate change have become commonplace.
Those events have “permanently moved climate change out of an ‘environmental policy’ pigeonhole into a far more potent public policy space occupied by such issues as health care and crime,” says Rick Smith, president of the Canadian Climate Institute.
Global sales of electric vehicles (EVs) jumped by 24 per cent last year, despite slowing EV sales growth in North America. And global sales of electric heat pumps are forecast to increase by more than 60 per cent from the current level to $205 billion by 2028.
Canada’s clean-tech sector, which makes everything from EV charging equipment to LED lighting for greenhouses, exported $7.6 billion worth of goods to the U.S. in 2022.
The sector is bracing for the tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods that Trump has said he will impose on Feb. 1.
Economists expect tariffs to be lifted once Canada and the U.S. negotiate an end to their differences, though that can take a year judging from the tariffs Trump imposed in his first presidency.
Another sustaining factor for clean energy is that governments have such a large influence in the transition, though private-sector utilities and tech firms also play major roles.
Somewhat insulated from the vagaries of the private sector, governments can stay the course on big-ticket energy projects that can take decades to plan and build.
And decisions on projects are shifting from national capitals to subgovernments, which increases the number of project sponsors and creates diversity in decision-making.
Provincial and state governments in North America are closer to the impact of severe climate events from which they are expected to protect their citizens.
Jurisdictions like Ontario, Quebec and B.C. are bigger players in planning future energy supplies than Ottawa.
And in the U.S., the more than 20 member states of the U.S. Climate Alliance are determined to continue promoting clean energy and have the Constitutional authority to do so.
Ontario is forecast to spend about $400 billion upgrading its power capacity by 2050 to reinforce its status as one of the world’s biggest clean-power producers.
Expansions and overhauls are underway at the province’s Bruce Power, Darlington and Pickering nuclear plants, and this month Ontario Premier Doug Ford announced plans for a new nuclear plant near Darlington.
Ontario is developing small modular reactor (SMR) technology that it hopes to export. And it seeks to double its energy production from wind, solar and other clean-energy sources.
Ford’s response to the Trump tariff threat includes a proposal to more thoroughly integrate the energy systems of Canada and the U.S.
Ford says the project, which also calls for integrated critical mineral production, would help the U.S. “decouple” from China.
The idea might seem fanciful. It would eclipse the size of a St. Lawrence Seaway jointly built by Canada and the U.S.
Then again, “The U.S. president has declared an ‘energy emergency’ to build new critical infrastructure,” wrote Yudullah Hussain of RBC Economics in a client note last week.
“Could some of it be built in Canada given the integrated nature of the two country’s energy sectors?”
Ford’s binational strategy might be worth pursuing just for its potential tech advances and cost efficiencies. And it would be ready for a Trump successor to embrace if Trump himself doesn’t see its merit.
