The Canadian Real Estate Association expects national home sales to grow 5.1 per cent in 2026, marking a rebound from last year’s tariff-induced slowdown in the market. It also expects the national average home price to rise 2.8 per cent on an annual basis to $698,881. Here’s what people are saying about the forecast:
“You might recall, I stood up here (last year) and said, ‘We think that first-time buyers are going to come back in the market this year,’ with rates having gone from six to basically four per cent for a mortgage rate, unless the Trump administration announces 25 per cent blanket tariffs, which they did five days later. So sort of took the rug out from under the spring market last year.” —Shaun Cathcart, CREA senior economist
“Buyers heading into the spring market have a meaningful advantage over last year: lower borrowing costs, stable or lower property prices, and choice. In an era where home inventory is chronically constrained, inventory levels are Goldilocks healthy. Together, these conditions are creating a genuine window of opportunity, particularly for first-time buyers in Canada’s most expensive markets.” —Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage
“Sales have stabilized at low levels over the past few months amid strained affordability, a sluggish economy, and buyer uneasiness. We think sales levels will remain low this year as well, impacted by economic uncertainty.” —Marc Ercolao, TD economist
“Buying conditions kind of stink for a lot of consumers. Sure, inventory’s up and variable interest rates are down, but those aren’t game-changers for someone who’s had to increase their debt load or eat into their down payment savings just to make ends meet … and if trade negotiations with the U.S. go sideways, consumers will find themselves dealing with a fresh wave of financial anxiety. No one wants to buy a home if they think the sky’s about to fall on it.” —Clay Jarvis, NerdWallet Canada mortgage expert
“Many talk about pent-up demand given the lack of sales volume in 2025, but there’s probably also a significant amount of pent-up supply in the form of listings that were sitting and ultimately pulled after not selling. We’ll see how this balance plays out in the spring.” —Robert Kavcic, BMO senior economist
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Jan. 15, 2026.
