Liberal leader won’t ask anyone to step down for her, but the party is stalled in making a comeback as long as she is a legislative outsider.
Where is the Ontario Liberal party heading after yet another election disappointment?
For three elections in a row, the party has lost ground, and now looks to be stuck in the political wilderness.
Even though the Liberals gained official party status in last month’s election, Leader Bonnie Crombie didn’t win a seat, making her a less effective leader than she would be if she were in the legislature. The NDP under Marit Stiles remains the Official Opposition, perpetual bridesmaids, but never the bride. Doug Ford won a historic third consecutive majority and is on course to become the dominant political force into the foreseeable future, just like the Liberals were during the 15-year McGuinty-Wynne era.
However, history and experience have taught us that parties that stay too long in office become lazy, entitled, run out of ideas and lose their way. We must recognize that. It would have been great for the NDP to pick up the mantle and try to win power when the Liberals crashed. But for three elections, the NDP has fallen short, so the hope must be that, for the sake of competitive party politics — which is vital for our democracy — the Liberals can recover.
Going into last month’s election, no one imagined the Liberals to even come close to winning. U.S. President Donald Trump’s threats against Canada turned the election into who can best protect Ontario, and incumbent Ford held the advantage. Even if the election had been fought on traditional issues such the health care and housing crises, and the scandals dogging Ford, it would still have been a mountain too high to climb for the Liberals. But as they lick their wounds, take stock and consider next steps, their top priority must be to find a safe seat to get Crombie into the legislature. It is imperative, now that Crombie has said she intends to carry on.
The party can’t really dump the leader who got them back from irrelevance and go into another long-drawn, potentially divisive leadership contest, and so it says it’s behind Crombie. Getting her a safe seat is easier said than done, of course, but it has been attempted before. In 2009, Conservative MPP Laurie Scott resigned in what was thought to be a safe Kawartha Lakes riding for party Leader John Tory to run and get into the legislature. But somehow, Tory contrived to lose the seat. However, Liberal leader Jean Chrétien won a 1990 byelection in Beausejour to get into the House of Commons after incumbent MP Fernand Robichaud stepped down for him. The big question is whether Crombie has the pull to do something similar, and where this safe seat might be found. Ottawa, perhaps?
Of the 14 seats won across the province, a pair came from flipping NDP and Tory seats in Toronto. But are they safe enough? Across the province, no area has proven safer for the Liberals than Ottawa. But who, where? The party surprisingly flipped Nepean, and that may be enticing. But Tyler Watt is just starting, and more importantly, this is a long-time Tory stronghold, and it is hard to see voters picking a Liberal leader as their representative. Lightning may indeed not strike twice.
That leaves Orléans, where Stephen Blais won handily, and Ottawa-Vanier, as safe a Liberal seat as they come, where Lucille Collard cruised to victory. Both have strong French roots, but that should not be a problem since Crombie is bilingual. Kanata-Carleton, where Karen McCrimmon won, is another, but the result was tighter than is comfortable — 48 per cent to 41 for the PCs — and it would be an unnecessary gamble.
Then there is Ottawa South, where John Fraser, who served as interim party leader before Crombie was chosen, has held the seat since 2013. The key question remains whether anyone would take the bullet for the sake of the party, and who? Crombie, meanwhile, said this week “I will not ask any of my incredible caucus members to step down. I will, at the right time, find a seat.” So the Liberals face a problem.
But the point of all this is to get some competition back into electoral politics to sustain our democracy. If the NDP can’t offer the required competition, as current evidence shows, perhaps the Liberals can — if they get their act together. But that begins with Crombie at Queen’s Park.
Mohammed Adam is an Ottawa journalist and commentator. Reach him at [email protected]
